BOZICH: After 10,000 simulations, computer likes U of L over UK - WDRB 41 Louisville News

BOZICH: After 10,000 simulations, computer likes U of L over UK

Posted: Updated: predicts U of L over UK with a nice game by halfback Dominique Brown. predicts U of L over UK with a nice game by halfback Dominique Brown.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – Notes Written After The Latest Prediction of A Louisville Romp Over Kentucky:

Computers are amazing creations. After less than a week of practice, and no full-scale scrimmages, the computer formulas at are prepared to predict several things for the season-opening game between UK and U of L Sept. 2.

At AccuScore, they're really ready for some football. They've played the game 10,000 times, which is roughly 10,001 more times than most UK fans want to see it.

First prediction: Louisville is given a 74.5 percent chance of winning.

If that number seems high, ask yourself if you've heard anybody predict a Kentucky upset. In the world of, I'd put the chances of a Cardinals' victory at closer to 99 percent.

Second prediction: U of L halfback Dominique Brown will rush for 79 yards.

That's more stunning because I'm relatively certain that on Wednesday I heard U of L coach Charlie Strong tout five running backs and say that he wasn't certain which guys would get the majority of the carries.

Final prediction: In the 25.4 percent of the simulated games that Kentucky wins, Wildcats' quarterback Maxwell Smith passes for 1.69 touchdowns and only 0.77 interceptions.

Unless, of course, Morgan Newton starts. Then it would be time to play 10,000 more simulated games.

*They also list U of L as a 14-1/2-point favorite with an over/under on total points at 41.

*Two thoughts on the Bobby Petrino Kleenex Festival on ESPN: 

First thought: Lying to his athletic director at Arkansas followed lying to his wife and family which followed lying to the Atlanta Falcons which followed lying to people at the University of Louisville.

Second thought: An athletic director at an FBS school will hire him for the 2013 season. He wins. He entertains. He didn't break NCAA rules. puts the odds of a Petrino hiring at an FBS job at 81.7 percent.

*Which local school, Louisville, Kentucky or Indiana, has the only four-star football commitment for the Class of 2013?

You're 100.0 percent wrong.

It's Kevin Wilson and IU.

The Hoosiers convinced Antonio Allen, a defensive back from Ben Davis High School in Indianapolis, to orally commit Thursday. According to, Allen had scholarship offers from Cincinnati, Iowa, Illinois, UK, U of L, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi and Purdue.

Of course, a year ago Indiana also had an oral commitment from Gunner Kiel of Columbus East, who now seems likely to redshirt at Notre Dame this season. As an FBS head coach once told me, an oral commitment only tells you which school you need to beat to sign a kid.

*Here is the overall count on Rivals for the three schools in the 2013 class:

Louisville has nine commitments – eight three-stars and one unranked prospect.

Kentucky has a dozen commitments – five three-stars, two two-stars and five unranked players.

Indiana has seven commitments – one four-star, four three-stars, one two-star and an unranked player.

*Don't look for any Penn State transfers to join the University of Louisville football program. Hasn't happened. Not likely to happen. Cards' defensive coordinator Vance Bedford explained why:

"That was an easy decision. We stayed right here in the office (after the Penn State NCAA penalties were announced). We like what we have.

"If a kid would have called us, that's great. I would not want to do that (recruit them). I was not raised that way, Coach Strong wasn't raised that way. We never gave it a second thought."

*I realized that Division I basketball coaches would elbow their grandmothers out of line to gain an edge, but I didn't realize jealousy raged that deeply through the ranks.

The guys at polled nearly 100 coaches during the summer evaluation period for their pick as the Most Overrated Coach in college hoops. The winner?

Roy Williams of North Carolina.

The same Roy Williams who has more consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances (20) than any active coach. The guy who ranks second to Mike Krzyzewski among active coaches in NCAA Tournament wins and winning percentage.

And the guy who has any many NCAA titles (two) as Dean Smith, Denny Crum and Henry Iba.

I'm 97.1 percent recommending a recount.

*What most excites Indiana basketball coach Tom Crean about the news that ESPN has scheduled an appearance (Feb. 2 against Michigan) by its College GameDay crew at Assembly Hall for the first time since the 2008 season?

"The thing I like best about GameDay is we earned it," said Crean. "The players earned it. They (ESPN) don't come in for favors. They don't come in because you know somebody. They come in for ratings. And I think that is exactly what our team is about right now. They're earning everything that's coming their way."

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