BOZICH: Cards, Cats, Hoosiers All Favored -- All Vulnerable
LOUISVILLE, KY. (WDRB) – Week Three is more interesting that Week Two on the local college football scene. No games against FCS opponents. Statement games for Louisville and Western Kentucky. A payback game for Indiana. A must win for Kentucky and Joker Phillips.
Sure: Best of all, all three games in legitimate doubt. Let's go to the videotape.
North Carolina at Louisville, 3:30 p.m.
AccuScore.com puts U of L's win probability at 58.5 percent, with the Cards favored by 3 ½.
Picking Louisville: The Sports Network, 31-23. Jeff Sagarin by 5 ½. Rick Bozich, 21-17. Eric Crawford, 34-24. Mitchell Light, Athlon Sports, 24-20.
Picking North Carolina: Phil Steele by 1.
Keys to the Game: Will North Carolina running back Giovani Bernard play?
UNC coach Larry Fedora believes that Bernard wants to play but isn't certain if he'll be available because of discomfort in his left knee that kept him on the sidelines against Wake Forest last weekend. Bernard is Carolina's best back, the key to Fedora's spread offense.
Red zone efficiency. North Carolina was forced to settle for two field goals in five trips inside the Wake Forest 20 last weekend, while the Demon Deacons generated four touchdowns in their four red zone trips.
Western Kentucky at Kentucky, 7 p.m.
AccuScore.com puts Kentucky's win probability at 74.8 percent, with the Wildcats favored by 7.
Picking Kentucky: The Sports Network predicts UK 31, WKU 23, Jeff Sagarin by – wow! -- 13, Phil Steele by 7; Rick Bozich, 24-20. Mitchell Light, Athlon Sports, 20-10. (Although three other Athlon writers like WKU).
Picking Western Kentucky: Eric Crawford, 35-31.
Keys to the Game: Can Kentucky run the ball against the WKU defensive front? Alabama discovered there wasn't much joy in that. The Crimson Tide managed only 103 yards on 31 attempts against the Hilltoppers in Tuscaloosa last weekend. Kentucky has to control WKU quarterback Kawaun Jakes, who has completed more than 70 percent of his passes this season.
Ball State at Indiana, 8 p.m.
AccuScore.com puts Indiana's win probability at 63.1 percent, with the Hoosiers favored by 3.
Picking Indiana: Jeff Sagarin by 10 ½, Phil Steele by 7, Eric Crawford, 31-27. Mitchell Light, Athlon Sports, 21-20.
Picking Ball State: The Sports Network, 31-27, Rick Bozich, 27-17.
Keys to the Game: Ball State has a running back to remember – sophomore Jahwan Edwards, who ran for 200 yards and three touchdowns against Eastern Michigan. Ball State ran and ran the ball against Indiana in Indianapolis last September. Indiana State hurt IU with its running game, so expect Ball State to trust the handoff to Edwards. Ball State has won two straight against IU, one in Bloomington, the other in Indianapolis.
Cameron Coffman gets the start for Indiana. He played 2 ½ quarters after Tre Roberson broke his leg last weekend. He's not the runner that Roberson is, and you wonder how smoothly Indiana's no-huddle attack will move with the change.
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