BOZICH BLOG: Second NCAA Tournament Seed Report
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – Monday is the day that the Associated Press drops its weekly college basketball Top 25 poll into the news cycle. I'm a fan of the poll – and a former voter.
But it's January, conference play is here and 1-to-25 isn't the way that most college basketball fans look at the unfolding season. We're already looking ahead to March and the NCAA Tournament. We're ready to translate how teams are ranked into how teams will be seeded for the tournament.
And I'm here to help.
Here is my system: I start with the five polls I monitor – three computer (Sagarin, Pomeroy, RPI) and two human (AP writers and USA Today coaches).
I assign the tops teams with numerical points that correspond with their poll rankings -- 1 for first, 2 for second, 3 for third, etc. Add the numbers. Low totals win.
Without further delay, here is Dr. Bo's Second Weekly Seed Report:
NUMBER ONE SEEDS
Duke (7 points) – The Blue Devils are unbeaten in 14 games, winning their last seven by double figures. But they finally play a road game Saturday at North Carolina State. Duke's very good, but Louisville and Michigan have higher ceilings.
Michigan (20) – The Wolverines have overtaken Indiana as the team to beat in the Big Ten, winning their first two league games by 28. When Tim Hardaway Jr. is on, beware.
Louisville (20) – The pieces are still fitting together as Gorgui Dieng gets healthy, and the Cards are about to play three games in six days, two on the road.
Kansas (24) – Ken Pomeroy projects a 15-3 Big 12 record for the Jayhawks. Good luck finding three defeats. I can't.
NUMBER TWO SEEDS
Indiana (29) – Hoosiers have not won their first two Big Ten road games since 2008. They can go 2-0 Monday night at Penn State. Hard to imagine another 0 for 10 game by Jordan Hulls.
Arizona (36) – Colorado beat the Wildcats last Thursday, despite what the final score says. Twitter World agrees.
Florida (38) – Gators appear to be the class of the SEC, but they could be one big man short of a load.
Syracuse (41) – The Orange will visit Louisville Jan. 19 for early control of the Big East.
NUMBER THREE SEEDS
Minnesota (41) – The Gophers are the best Top 10 team nobody is talking about but they'll get plenty of attention this week because they have to visit Illinois (Wednesday) and Indiana (Saturday). What do you think of Tubby Smith's mustache?
Gonzaga (45) – Believe it or not, the Zags are fifth in the RPI – and I don't believe it because I watched them lose a home game to Illinois.
Creighton (64) – Fear the Missouri Valley.
Missouri (87) – The Tigers' trip to Mississippi Saturday is a big game in the SEC. Really, it is.
NUMBER FOUR SEEDS
Ohio State (95) – Life without Greg Oden, Evan Turner, William Buford, David Lighty and Jared Sullinger can be rough for Thad Matta.
Michigan State (98) – The Spartans still have too many stretches where they slip into Can't Score mode.
Illinois (102) – The Illini need to back up their big win against Ohio State with another against visiting Minnesota on Wednesday.
VCU (105) – Something about Shaka Smart's team registers with Sagarin (9th) and Pomeroy (12th).
OTHER NOTABLES – Cincinnati, Notre Dame, five seeds; Kentucky and unbeaten Wyoming, six seeds.
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