Andrew Wiggins is going to make one fan base ecstatic and three others unhappy on Tuesday afternoon.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – Andrew Wiggins is the greatest high school basketball player since the last greatest high school basketball player to pick the University of Kentucky.
That was Julius Randle. Maybe it was James Young. Or Andrew Harrison. Check the calendar – and then pick your favorite. Defend your choice.
Wiggins is so talented, poised and accomplished that the recruiting services considered giving him seven stars – and then celebrated the bonus web hits Wiggins provided by stretching his recruiting saga into mid-May. Computer servers everywhere have been put on notice for Tuesday.
On Tuesday at 12:15 p.m. at Huntington (W.Va.) Prep, Wiggins will announce that he's coming to Kentucky.
Unless he picks Florida State.
Or Michael Jordan University. Or Kansas. Or … well, there isn't supposed to be another "Or," but this chase has been so void of substantive news that anything's possible.
This is the last day to speculate. Or make a prediction. Or get those easy web hits.
After checking with multiple basketball sources, I readjusted my forecast percentages at 5:45 p.m. Monday. When it comes to Andrew Wiggins, I'm being just as indecisive as Andrew Wiggins. I've changed my mind from Kentucky to Kansas to Florida State -- in only six hours.
None of analysts and coaches that I interviewed Monday picked Kentucky or North Carolina. Florida State has emerged as consensus pick, although one coach told me not to count out Kansas. Even ESPN's Dick Vitale said that he thought that Florida State was the team to beat -- and if Vitale thought John Calipari was the guy to beat he would say so.
CHANCES HE'LL CHOOSE KENTUCKY: DOWN FROM 40 TO 21 PERCENT
Why He'll Pick UK: With or without Wiggins, the Wildcats have already recruited the greatest class since Humphrey Bogart assembled the Rat Pack.
If Kentucky gets Wiggins, the talk will start with a national championship, move toward an undefeated season and conclude with a challenge to take on the Miami Heat. Where do I sign?
Why 40 percent at one point? I believe John Calipari has discussed going 40-0 at least once before the coach departs Lexington.
Nerlens Noel is about to join Anthony Davis and John Wall as UK's third overall top NBA Draft pick over the last four seasons. The surest way for Wiggins to join the Number One Club is sign with Kentucky. Everybody's doing it.
Why He'll Snub UK: The coaches rules committee made several recommendations last week, but they're not ready to go to three balls or 7 on 7 competition.
Kentucky is already going to set an NCAA record for McDonald's all-Americans parked on the bench. If Wiggins is looking to put up big, big numbers, it's hard to imagine him doing that at Kentucky. If going to UK was a no-brainer, why didn't Wiggins say that long, long ago?
CHANCES HE'LL PICK FLORIDA STATE: UP FROM 22 TO 44 PERCENT
Why He'll Pick FSU: Have you read the ground rules for the Wiggins' press conference? One reporter, the hometown guy, will be in the room.
Does that sound like a kid eager to plunge into the world of #BBN and answer the questions Alex Poythress answered last season? Or a guy who wants to explain to the Kentucky media why he isn't coming to Kentucky? Playing for the Seminoles is like playing in the Witness Protection Program League. He can enjoy some one reporter nights.
But why 22 percent? Check the 1982-83 FSU media guide cover. That's his Dad, Mitchell Wiggins, wearing Number 22. His mother and father are both former Seminoles. So make it 22 x 2.
Why He'll Snub FSU: Dick Vitale lives in Florida, but in the winter his private plane is on autopilot to Lexington, not Tallahassee.
Name a Florida State basketball player. Charlie Ward and Mitchell Wiggins don't count. Name a big FSU moment in NCAA Tournament history.
Get back to me in a few minutes. I'm moving to other contenders.
CHANCES HE'LL PICK NORTH CAROLINA: DOWN FROM 21 TO 8 PERCENT
Why He'll Pick UNC: His Dad was born in North Carolina. It's a sensible compromise pick. He can plug into the small forward spot and make the Tar Heels a legitimate national contender.
Tar Heels' fans seem to know how to love All-Universe players, without smothering them.
Why only 8 percent? Because I think the Tar Heels are fading fast.
Why He'll Snub UNC: The one-year flight plan isn't a Carolina specialty. Tyler Hansbrough stayed four years. Jordan and Vince Carter made it three. Harrison Barnes two -- and was considered a bit of a bust.
UNC has had a few guys do the one-and-done thing – Marvin Williams, Brandan Wright – but not the program's signature players. Most guys hang around Franklin Street at least two seasons, Mr. Wiggins.
CHANCES HE'LL PICK KANSAS: UP FROM 14 TO 24 PERCENT
Why He'll Pick KU: Mario Chalmers. Brandon Rush. Thomas Robinson. The Morris twins. Xavier Henry. Bill Self can put players in The Association, too. He's had a few one-and-dones. He's won a national title. Guys enjoy playing for him.
The Jayhawks' roster has been cleansed by early departures and departing seniors. Wiggins can shoot all the shots that Ben McLemore shot last season – and more.
Why 24 percent? Because the number fits with my addition of a surprise fifth program (read on). And everybody keeps saying don't count Bill Self out.
Why He'll Snub KU: The Jayhawks will be good next season. With Wiggins, you could upgrade that to very good.
But they won't be great. If you want to play on the final weekend of the 2014 season, you don't pick Kansas.
CHANCES HE'LL PICK LOUISVLLE: 3 PERCENT
Why He'll Pick U of L: It's the only place Wiggins can go if he wants to defend an NCAA title – and Gorgui Dieng showed how much joy a Huntington Prep product can find on Main Street.
Why 3 percent? Because last season showed the dangers of counting Rick Pitino out in anything.
Why He'll Snub U of L: The Cards aren't recruiting him. They're not really in the picture. Maybe Wiggins will recruit Louisville. I told you this thing has been strange.