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SOURCE BNY Mellon
BNY Mellon Investment Boutique Sees Political Logjam as Diversion from Improving Economic Data
NEW YORK and LONDON, Oct. 4, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The strengthening U.S. economy likely is healthy enough to withstand the government shutdown and the debt ceiling debate provided that these uncertainties can be resolved fairly quickly, according to Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC, the Boston-based fixed income specialist for BNY Mellon.
The Standish view was published in its October Global Macro Views, which also is projecting economic growth to accelerate in the U.S. and most international markets in 2014, with China and Japan being the notable exceptions.
"Political dysfunction in the United States is temporarily diverting attention away from improving economic data," said Thomas Higgins, chief economist for Standish and one of the authors of the report.
In the U.S., Standish expects real gross domestic product (GDP) to rebound to 2.5 percent in the 2013 fourth quarter, which would bring GDP growth up to 2.0 percent for the full year. For 2014, Standish is forecasting GDP growth of 2.3 percent. Considering this outlook, Standish said that it expects the Federal Reserve to begin tapering in December or early next year, assuming the battle over the debt ceiling is resolved.
The global economy is expected to expand 3.0 percent in 2013 and then accelerate to 3.4 percent growth in 2014, the report said.
"We are beginning to see tentative signs that the pickup in euro area growth is having a positive knock-on effect in Eastern Europe, and we expect economic activity to accelerate in Latin America due to stronger global demand next year," Higgins said.
In the euro area, Standish is looking for 1.0 percent growth in GDP in 2014, as the region continues to dig out of the recession, which lasted for six quarters before the economy began growing in the second quarter of 2013. In the United Kingdom, real GDP is expected to climb from 1.0 percent in 2013 to 1.5 percent in 2014.
China in the 2013 third quarter appeared to have successfully balanced growth and inflation, Standish said. Standish raised its projection for China's 2013 GDP growth from 7.2 percent to 7.5 percent. However, the October report notes, "We are worried about downside risk to our seven percent (GDP) growth forecast in 2014, particularly if there is slow progress on rebalancing the economy away from investment and toward consumption."
For Japan, GDP growth could slow from 2.1 percent in 2013 to 1.8 percent in 2014, Standish said. However, the report notes, "Looking forward, we expect the Japanese economy to continue to expand as investment accelerates, private consumption remains strong ahead of the value-added tax hike scheduled for April of next year, and exports continue to grow."
Notes to Editors:
Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC, with approximately $165 billion of assets under management, provides investment management services across a broad spectrum of fixed income asset classes. These include corporate credit, emerging markets debt (dollar-denominated and local currency), core / core plus, tax–sensitive, short duration, stable value and opportunistic (U.S. and global) strategies. Standish also offers full service capabilities in insurance client strategies and liability driven investing. The firm includes assets managed by Standish personnel acting as dual officers of The Dreyfus Corporation and The Bank of New York Mellon and Alcentra NY, LLC personnel acting as dual officers of Standish.
BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.4 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at www.bnymellon.com.
BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 35 countries and more than 100 markets. As of June 30, 2013, BNY Mellon had $26.2 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration, and $1.4 trillion in assets under management. BNY Mellon can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute or restructure investments. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.
All information source BNY Mellon as of June 30, 2013. This press release is qualified for issuance in the UK and US and is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation of securities or investment services or an endorsement thereof in any jurisdiction or in any circumstance in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized. Any views and opinions contained in this document are those of the author as at the date of issue; are subject to change and should not be taken as investment advice. BNYMAMI and its affiliates are not responsible for any subsequent investment advice given based on the information supplied. This press release is issued by BNY Mellon Investment Management (US) and BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited (ex-US) to members of the financial press and media and the information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice. The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise due to stock market and currency movements. When you sell your investment you may get back less than you originally invested. Registered office of BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited: BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England no. 1118580. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. A BNY Mellon Company.