BOZICH | First look at U of L, UK, IU, WKU Football Week Three O - WDRB 41 Louisville News

BOZICH | First look at U of L, UK, IU, WKU Football Week Three Odds

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LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – Week Two is over – and so is the Big Ten. The countdown to Week Three in college football has already started, at least the local edition at has.

Even before the sharp folks in Las Vegas posted the point spreads for the upcoming games, I got a jump on the crowd by calculating the preliminary spreads from Jeff Sagarin's computer power ratings – using his preferred Predictor formula.

As usual, Sagarin is good. Very good. Check his numbers against the spreads. He's usually very close, which is difficult this early in the season. 

Here goes:

Louisville at Virginia, 12:30 p.m. – The Cavaliers were outgained by more than 100 yards by FCS program Richmond but still managed a 45-13 victory by forcing seven turnovers. Virginia ended a 10-game overall losing streak, but has still lost 10 consecutive conference games.

POINT SPREAD: Louisville opened as a 10-point favorite. The number dropped to 9 1/2, then 8 1/2 and is now 6 1/2.

SAGARIN SAYS: Louisville by 7.74

Kentucky at Florida, 7:30 p.m. – The heat is on Gators' coach Will Muschamp, but it was reduced from high to medium-well after Florida punished woeful Eastern Michigan, 65-0, outgaining the visitors, 655-125. I'm not sure what beating Eastern Michigan really means, considering Eastern has lost 16 of its last 19 games. OK, I am sure. Not much.

POINT SPREAD: The Gators opened as a 17-point favorite, but the number slipped to 16 1/2 before climbing to 17 1/2.

SAGARIN SAYS: Florida by 16.84.

Indiana at Bowling Green, noon – The Falcons bounced back from their embarrassing trip to Western Kentucky as well as the loss of their starting quarterback to injury by thumping VMI, 48-7, even though they allowed 418 yards. VMI, for the record, is an FCS program that went 6-6 last season. IU had an extra week to prepare. Good thing or bad thing?

POINT SPREAD: Opened at Bowling Green by 3 and dropped to pick 'em in less than 10 minutes. IU is now favored by 6.

SAGARIN SAYS: Bowling Green by 2.83.

Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee, 7 p.m. – Middle Tennessee traveled to Minnesota, fell behind 28-0 and then rallied before losing 35-24. Middle outgained the Gophers by 94 yards. This game is Western's official welcome to Conference USA.

POINT SPREAD: The game opened even, but Middle is now favored by 1. Factoring in homefield advantage, that means Vegas thinks WKU is the better team.

SAGARIN SAYS: Middle by 4.62

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