By John David Dyche
“Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.” The origins of this quote are apparently disputed, but its accuracy is not.
Which of the following predictions about Kentucky politics do you think will come true? My picks are at the end of the column.
1. Republicans will be the majority in the Kentucky House of Representatives:
A. Before the 2016 General Assembly regular session, via Democratic Party switches;
B. During the 2016 General Assembly regular session, via Democratic Party switches;
C. Via wins in the 2016 elections;
D. After the 2016 elections, if ever.
2. The 2016 General Assembly regular session will:
A. Pass a budget that Governor Bevin signs;
B. Pass a budget that Governor Bevin does not sign;
C. Not pass a budget.
3. The 2016 General Assembly regular session:
A. Will borrow via bonding to generate revenue for state pensions;
B. Will establish a dedicated stream of revenue for state pensions;
C. Will make “the full ARC,” or actuarial required contribution, to state pensions;
D. All of the above.
E. None of the above.
4. The 2016 General Assembly regular session:
A. Will repeal Governor Beshear’s Medicaid expansion under Obamacare;
B. Will pass right-to-work legislation;
C. Will pass a statewide smoking ban;
D. Will act to repeal and replace Kentucky’s core academic standards;
E. None of the above;
F. All of the above.
5. By the end of 2016, new Republican governor Matt Bevin:
A. Will have had a big, ugly feud with one or more members of Kentucky political media;
B. Will have high approval ratings and be acknowledged by even liberal media and political adversaries as having gotten off to a very good beginning as governor;
C. Or his administration will be the target of an investigation by new Democratic attorney general Andy Beshear and/or the U.S. Justice Department of Democratic President Barack Obama;
D. Will have been impeached by the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives at the urging of Speaker of the House Greg Stumbo;
E. Will be in a big, ugly feud with one or both of Kentucky’s Republican U.S. Senators Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul;
F. None of the above.
6. Rand Paul will drop out of the presidential race:
A. Before the Iowa caucuses on February 1;
B. After the Iowa caucuses, but before the New Hampshire primary on February 9;
C. After the New Hampshire primary, but before Super Tuesday on March 1;
D. After Super Tuesday, but before the Republican convention;
E. None of the above.
7. In Kentucky’s 2016 U. S. Senate race:
A. There will be a contested Democratic primary between credible candidates;
B. There will be a contested Republican primary between Rand Paul and another credible candidate;
C. There will be another credible Republican candidate on the primary ballot, but he or she will urge voters to elect Rand Paul if Paul drops out of the presidential race before the primary election;
D. None of the above.
8. In Kentucky’s 2016 U.S. Senate race, the Democratic candidate will be:
A. A political newcomer who has never run for political office;
B. Someone who has run for political office before, but lost;
C. Someone who has previously run for political office and won, but is no longer in office;
D. Someone who then holds a political office;
E. A candidate who is not credible and has no chance.
9. In Kentucky’s 2016 U.S. Senate race, the Democratic candidate will be:
A. Male over fifty years old;
B. Female over fifty years old;
C. Male under fifty years old;
D. Female under fifty years old.
10. The winner of Kentucky’s 2016 Republican presidential caucus will be:
A. Rand Paul;
B. Donald Trump;
C. Jeb Bush;
D. Marco Rubio;
E. Ted Cruz;
F. Ben Carson;
G. Mike Huckabee;
H. None of the above.
11. In the 2016 presidential election the Democratic candidate:
A. Seriously contest Kentucky and win;
B. Seriously contest Kentucky but lose;
C. Effectively concede Kentucky to the Republicans.
12. After the 2016 elections, Mitch McConnell will:
A. Serve another congressional session as Senate Majority Leader;
B. Not serve another congressional session as Senate Majority Leader despite a Republican majority;
C. Not serve another congressional session as Senate Majority Leader because of a Democratic majority.
My predictions: 1-C; 2-C; 3-E; 4-E; 5-A; 6-D; 7-C; 8-A; 9-C; 10-D; 11-C; 12-A. If you e-mail me yours I will do my best to keep them, count them, and congratulate the best political prognosticator after Election Day 2016. There is no prize but pride.
(John David Dyche is a Louisville attorney and a political commentator for WDRB.com. His e-mail is firstname.lastname@example.org. Follow him on Twitter @jddyche.)
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