BOZICH | Three reasons Indiana will defeat North Carolina in East Regional
Three reasons why Indiana will defeat North Carolina in the semifinals of the East Regional in Philadelphia Friday night.
PHILADELPHIA, Pa. (WDRB) – Before you make your prediction on the Indiana-North Carolina game in the NCAA Tournament East Regional semifinals, here are three reasons to believe that Indiana can deliver the upset at the Wells Fargo Center.
1. Carolina struggled to defend the three-point line during its six defeats.
In games UNC lost to Northern Iowa, Texas, Louisville, Notre Dame, Duke and Virginia, opponents shot 38.5 percent from distance, averaging 7.5 made threes.
Northern Iowa (11 for 28), Texas (12 for 24) and Virginia (7 for 16) punished the Tar Heels from the perimeter.
According to ShotAnalytics, Indiana ranks first in the nation shooting the three from the left corner, fourth at the top of the key and sixth from the right wing.
The Hoosiers’ ability to make the three from multiple players from both sides of the court adds to the risk of relying on double teams against IU on the block.
IU has made at least 10 three-points in 18 games this season.
2. Indiana ranks first in the nation in effective field goal percentage, 72 spots ahead of the Tar Heels.
Credit that to the Hoosiers’ consistently solid performance behind the arc. Effective field goal percentage is calculated by adding a team’s made two-point field goals to 1.5 times its made three-point shots and then dividing by its total field goal attempts.
According to Ken Pomeroy’s website, IU’s effective field goal percentage is 58.9 percent. North Carolina’s number is 52 percent. UNC ranks 10th among the 12 teams still playing in the NCAA Tournament.
3. North Carolina is not a great defensive rebounding team. Several opposing coaches told me this week that the keys to defeating the Tar Heels were transition defense and beating them on the boards.
The Tar Heels are terrific on the offensive glass, grabbing nearly 40 percent of their misses, a performance that ranks fourth in the nation.
But determined teams can rebound their misses, too. Opponents are getting nearly 30 percent of their misses against UNC, a number than ranks No. 183 among all Division I schools.
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