BOZICH | Predicting the College Football Playoff Poll Top 10
The second College Football Playoff poll will be announced at 7 p.m. Tuesday. Rick Bozich tried to predict the Top 10, including Louisville's new position.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — I don’t have any connections to Gallup, Politico and WikiLeaks, but I do have my predictions ready for Tuesday night.
No, not about that.
About this — the College Football Playoff Top 25 reveal. It’s scheduled for 7 p.m. on ESPN.
My formula is the same one I used last week: Working with the composite results from the two human Top 25 polls as well as the six computer power ratings that were included in the retired Bowl Championship Series formula, I calculated the ratings for the nation’s top teams.
I stopped after I determined teams 1-through-10. Why? It’s unlikely that a team currently outside the Top 10 (sorry, Oklahoma, Western Michigan and Colorado) will jump into the only spots that matter — the top four.
The rankings are below, but I’ll spoil part of the surprise by explaining why Louisville earned the sixth spot in the composite rankings (not No. 5, like the Cardinals’ rating in the Associated Press poll).
Strength of schedule.
That is the issue.
This was Louisville’s strength of schedule in the five computer formulas that share their SOS data:
60th in Sagarin; 47th in Anderson/Hester; 52nd in Billingsley; 74th in Colley Matrix and 37 in Massey. (Florida State not being Florida State has not helped Bobby Petrino’s team. The Seminoles are the only team Louisville has beaten that currently has a winning record.)
Ohio State, for the record, ranked as high as third and no worse than 28th in SOS from those five services.
The Cards’ SOS is ranked superior to Washington’s in four of the five computer formulas. But Washington is unbeaten. If the Huskies lose, I’d expect the Cardinals to jump Chris Petersen’s team.
But not Ohio State.
Here are the composite numbers.
1. Alabama — Don’t tell Nick Saban this, but the Wolfe power ratings have Clemson ranked first and the Crimson Tide second.
2. Clemson — The Tigers and Michigan are tied, but I’m giving Dabo Swinney’s team the edge because they lead the Wolverines in five of the eight polls.
3. Michigan — The Wolverines lead Clemson in the Associated Press, Sagarin and Massey rankings.
4. Washington — The Huskies are ranked as high as third (Massey) and as low as fifth (Anderson/Hester, Colley).
5. Ohio State — The one-loss Buckeyes are credited with a considerably stronger strength of schedule than Louisville in five computer rankings.
6. Louisville — The Cardinals rank seventh in four of the BCS computer rankings and 10th in another. Only Sagarin Predictor has Louisville sixth.
7. Wisconsin — Those games with LSU, Michigan, Ohio State and Nebraska give the Badgers a top-notch strength of schedule.
8. Auburn — Don’t sleep on the Tigers. If they win at Georgia Saturday, they’ll be in the discussion until Nov. 26.
9. Texas A&M — The Aggies won’t be able to overcome that loss to Mississippi State.
10. Penn State — The Nittany Lions will win out — and wonder how they lost to Pittsburgh.
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