BOZICH | Picking Kentucky Derby 144 by the numbers
A look at Kentucky Derby 144 by the numbers -- and not the ones supplied by The Daily Racing Form or Ragozin sheets.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Put down your Daily Racing Form and Ragozin sheets. Close the thorograph.com computer tab on your laptop.
You can return to the sophisticated, fool-proof Kentucky Derby handicapping later. Here are numbers that will help you convince your Derby-party friends that you know what you're talking about -- and maybe help you pick the winner of Derby 144 Saturday (increasingly late) afternoon at Churchill Downs.
$6,367,000 -- Money spent in auction on the dozen Derby starters that were purchased at the Keeneland Select September Yearling Sale in 2016.
$3,000,000 -- Purchase price for Mendelssohn, the September Sales topper. The only pricier Derby winner would be Fusiachi Pegasus, the 2000 champion. He sold for $4 million.
$20,000 -- Purchase price for My Boy Jack, the most affordable Derby starter purchased in that Keeneland group.
$17,500 -- Purchase price for Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew at the 1975 Fasig-Tipton Yearling option.
$0.75 -- Purchase price for my 2018 Kentucky Derby picks, if you e-mail on Thursday at firstname.lastname@example.org. (The picks will be free if you can relax until my Friday column.)
0 -- Number of times I've heard the word, "Dosage," on the Churchill Downs backstretch, another sign of the death of the once powerful Derby handicapping tool.
3 -- Hall of Fame trainers who will saddle horses for Kentucky Derby 144 but have yet to win the race. Steve Asmussen, Jerry Hollendorfer and Bill Mott are a combined 0-for-31. With 18 Derby starters, Asmussen has trained more Derby starters without winning than anybody.
4:30 p.m. -- Post time listed for the 1963 Derby, the first year the post time was included in the race charts in the Derby media guide.
5:37 (p.m.) -- Post time when Secretariat began his roll toward the Triple Crown in 1973.
6:46 (p.m) -- Projected post time for the race Saturday.
7:46 (p.m.) -- Feared Derby post time by deadline-squeezed media members for the Kentucky Derby 154.
9:46 (p.m.) -- Feared Derby post time by deadline-terrified media members for Kentucky Derby 155.
4 -- Horses sired by Scat Daddy expected to start Saturday, led by Justify, the likely favorite, as well as Mendelssohn, the second choice in the oddsmaker Mike Battaglia's morning line. According to TheBloodHorse.com, Scat Daddy will be the fourth sire to have four runners in a single Derby as well as the first since Chicle in 1923.
0 -- Number of former Derby winners who sired likely starters in the 20-horse field
$100,000 -- Scat Daddy's listed stud fee when the stallion died unexpectedly at Ashford Stud on Dec. 14, 2015.
18 -- Where Scat Daddy finished in the 2007 Derby as the third-betting choice.
38 -- Approximate number of lengths that Scat Daddy finished behind Derby winner Street Senes. The colt suffered a tendon injury at Churchill Downs and retired a month after the race.
$4 -- Posted price I saw for a bottle of water at Churchill Downs Tuesday.
$4.99 -- Current Kroger Click List price for 24 Dasani 16.9 bottles of water, which will be loaded into your vehicle.
1 -- Kentucky Derby winners bred in Montana -- Spokane, who won in 1889. Bolt d'Oro, runner-up to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby, will attempt to become the second Saturday.
10 -- combined number of Derbies won by trainers D. Wayne Lukas (four), Bob Baffert (four) and Todd Pletcher.
0 -- combined Derbies won by the 12 other guys who will saddle horses Saturday.
6 -- Trainers who have won back-to-back Derbies. Baffert was the last to deliver with Silver Charm and Real Quiet in 1997 and 1998. Todd Pletcher, who won last year with Always Dreaming, has four starters in the 20-horse field.
6 -- Derbies won by Ben Jones from 1938-to-1952. Jones is the only Derby trainer with more victories than Lukas or Baffert.
.083 -- Derby winning percentage by Lukas, who is 4 for 48 and has not won the race since Charismatic scored in 1999.
.148 -- Derby winning percentage by Baffert, who is 4 for 27 and has won the race four times since 1997
4 -- Jockeys with Kentucky Derby wins, a group led by Victor Espinosa and Kent Desormeaux, who have three. John Velasquez won his second Derby last year with Always Dreaming while Mike Smith scored on Giacomo in (2005).
3 -- Number of jockeys who have won more than three Derbies -- Eddie Arcaro and Bill Hartack won five while Bill Shoemaker won four.
.043 -- Smith's Derby winning percentage. He's tied with Pat Day for the second most mounts -- 23 -- and has only scored with Giacomo, who paid $102.60 on a $2 wager.
4 -- Jockeys making their Kentucky Derby debut: Paco Lopez; James Graham; Luis Contreras and Drayden Van Dyke.
27 -- The number of rookie jockeys who have won the Derby, but only two since 1980 (Stewart Elliott on Smarty Jones in 2004 and Mario Gutierrez on I'll Have Another six years ago).
0-for-51 -- The combined record of the other 12 jockeys with Derby mounts, led by Robby Albarado who is 0-for-14 with one second as well as a pair of third-place finishes.
17 -- Years since Monarchos became the second Derby winner to finish the mile-and-a-quarter in less than 2 minutes. Monarchos (1:59.97) and Secretariat (1:59.40) remain the only two Derby winners to break the 2-minute barrier. Always Dreaming was clocked in 2:03.59.
.037 -- My Kentucky Derby prognostication success record since 1990. After forecasting four winners in the Eighties, including Sunday Silence over Easy Goer in 1989, I've picked only one of the last 27 — California Chrome in 2014.
You have be warned.
Copyright 2018 WDRB Media. All rights Reserved.