Tuesday Severe Potential
Monday's storms - and the ingredients creating them - will play a role in where and how strong Tuesday's storms develop.
Tuesday's storms have the potential to be strong with a few weak severe storms possible. The northern half of our region is included in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (the lowest category out of five).
The main threat with Tuesday storms would be stronger wind gusts up to 60 mph. Heavy rain will also be likely inside these thunderstorms, so we will be keeping an eye on the potential for flash flooding.
The dewpoint will still be high Tuesday which shows ample moisture for storm development. This is also an important point to notice when talking about threats since it will contribute to the heavy rain potential.
With high temperatures near the low 90s and dewpoints in the low 70s, it's no wonder instability (or storm energy) is high Tuesday. This supports the potential for afternoon pop-up storms driven by daytime heating.
The forcing mechanisms driving this are a cold front and an upper-level trough moving our direction from the northwest. The trough is not incredibly amplified or strong and there is limited forcing in the middle and lower levels of the atmosphere. There is no strong jet streak in either the lower or upper levels and weak vorticity advection in the mid-levels. All of those things combined mean a lower tornadic threat and show the storms that do pop up will be mainly driven by the daytime instability and the cold front. That's especially important when we look at the timing.
The storm chance begins Tuesday afternoon mainly driven by daytime heating and humidity. Those should start to pop up between noon and 2 PM.
The cold front actually comes through in the small hours Wednesday morning, so that brings another chance to see storms overnight.
Let's not sleep on the Wednesday storm threat. There's a potential for development in the afternoon since dewpoints never really drop behind this cold front. Temperatures will fall slightly, so overall instability isn't quite as high Wednesday. That trough mentioned earlier transitions to a cut-off low pressure center in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which could create some storms Wednesday afternoon.
Most of the Wednesday storms would come during the morning, but some could linger into the afternoon. It's possible the cold front slows down or the upper-level low deepens a little more which would keep the storm chance alive in the area longer.