LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The most important game is the next game. Play them one at a time. You can’t win them all unless you win the first one.
Yada, yada, yada.
In the buildup to the 2023 college football season we have reached the point where teammates are as weary of hitting each other as the media is about forecasting results.
Next week we will begin to collect significant information — game results. Until then, I’ll stick to my talking point that schedules matter.
Would you rather start your season at home against Ball State or against Ohio State?
Thank you.
Looking at what is ahead for Jeff Brohm at Louisville, Mark Stoops at Kentucky and Tom Allen at Indiana, I have selected the 3 Most Important Games for the Cardinals, Wildcats and Hoosiers.
I’m open to rebuttal and debate at rbozich@wdrb.com.
LOUISVILLE
1. At Georgia Tech, Sept. 1 — Picking the first game on the schedule for a new coach seems so predictable but there is more than predictability on the line here.
Georgia Tech beat U of L under the Cards’ last two coaches — by 19 against Scott Satterfield in 2020 and by 35 during the season Bobby Petrino rolled over in 2018.
Although Las Vegas hung a 4 1/2 over/under season win total on the Yellow Jackets, Tech actually split its last eight games last season after promoting Brent Key to replace the fired Geoff Collins. The Yellow Jackets beat three teams (Pitt, Duke and North Carolina) that finished with winning records. Tech is not awful.
Unlike U of L coach Jeff Brohm, Key has declined to name a starting quarterback. The choice figures to be either Zach Pyron, who started three games before suffering a shoulder injury in 2022, or Haynes King, a transfer from Texas A&M.
Neither completed 60% of his passes. Both struggled with interceptions.
As a 7 1/2-point favorite, Brohm and the Cardinals have a wonderful opportunity to make an energizing first-impression.
2. At North Carolina State, Sept. 29 — Friday night. National TV. A reasonable chance to be 4-0 traveling to Raleigh. A week before the Cards play host to Notre Dame.
Imagine the buzz if Louisville is 5-0 with the Irish in town.
Although the Wolfpack were picked to finish fourth in the Atlantic Coast Conference at ACC media day, coach Dave Doeren lost quarterback Devin Leary to Kentucky, which is difficult to read as a vote of confidence in the direction of the program.
Except Doeren never flinched. He hired Robert Anae as his offensive coordinator and recruited Brennan Armstrong from the transfer portal. Anae coached the left-handed Armstrong at Virginia in 2021. He threw for more than 4,440 yards and 31 touchdowns, including a 487-yard performance in a win at Louisville.
N.C. State might be the best ACC team Louisville plays. Success in Raleigh would be a solid credential — and launching point for a big season.
3. Kentucky, Nov. 25. Louisville has not defeated Kentucky since Lamar Jackson left town. The Cards have not come within 10 points of the Wildcats. Playing at home, Louisville needs to stop the UK winning streak at four.
It’s that simple.
KENTUCKY
1. At Vanderbilt, Sept 23 — You can call Vandy’s 24-21 win over UK at Kroger Field last season a fluke. You can blame it on the offensive coordinator that Mark Stoops replaced. You can question a late personal foul penalty that sustained Vandy’s game-winning touchdown drive.
Here is one thing Kentucky cannot do: Lose to Vanderbilt in back-to-back seasons and expect to be taken seriously in the Southeastern Conference.
That has not happened since the Wildcats lost three straight to the Commodores from 2011-2013.
2. Florida, Sept. 30 — Eliminating the Fear Factor in playing Florida ranks near the top of Stoops’ achievements in Lexington.
Beating the Gators is no longer a reason to storm the field. It’s expected. UK has won 3 of 5 against Florida for the first time since 1979.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Gators pegged for 6.8 wins and UK for 7.1. With Anthony Richardson gone to the Indianapolis Colts, coach Billy Napier is counting on Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz at quarterback — and Mertz had the seventh best passing rating in the Big Ten last season.
This is not Urban Meyer or Steve Spurrier Florida. Kentucky is positioned to remain the bigger dog in this rivalry, especially in Lexington.
3. Tennessee Oct. 28 — If Stoops has flipped the script in the Florida rivalry, it’s the same old nonsense against the Vols. He’s 2-8 against Tennessee, failing to gain legitimate traction as the Vols transitioned from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt to Josh Heupel.
Last season it was back to the days of Peyton Manning, a 44-6 Tennessee beatdown.
The schedule could not be any sweeter for the Wildcats. Kentucky welcomes the Vols after an off week — with Tennessee playing its rivalry game at Alabama on Oct. 21.
Beating Georgia or Alabama is an unreasonable request. Beating Tennessee should not be.
INDIANA
1. Louisville, in Indianapolis, Sept. 16 — I understand Indiana’s reasons for wanting to cancel the final two games on the U of L series contract.
I also understand the folks howling that it’s a bad look by Indiana, a vote of no-confidence in the program.
Tom Allen is in his seventh season as the IU head coach. Jeff Brohm is in his first season at U of L. A coach that deep into program-building should be able to compete with a coach who is merely getting started, especially on a neutral field.
Nobody expects IU to hang with Ohio State in the Hoosiers’ season opener. Beating Indiana State won’t prove anything.
If Indiana wants to regain any of the buzz the program generated in 2019 and 2020, the Hoosiers need to beat the Cardinals.
2. Rutgers, Oct. 21 — The Scarlet Knights have won three Big Ten games the last two seasons. Two have been over Indiana.
Of the nine league games on the Indiana schedule, this one is clearly the most winnable. Until 2021, the Hoosiers had won five straight over Rutgers.
Good luck finding a path to a winning season for IU without a win in this game.
3. At Purdue, Nov. 25 — Brohm and his sophisticated passing attack is gone. So is quarterback Aidan O’Connell. So are 10 other Purdue starters. Purdue is transitioning from a team that won with offense to a program founded on a strong defense.
Purdue isn’t Ohio State, Michigan or even Iowa or Wisconsin. Indiana beat the Boilermakers four straight times from 2013-2016.
Anomaly? Looks that way.
But beating a first-year coach in a rivalry game is not an unreasonable ask, especially if Indiana expects to return to a bowl game.
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