LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The Question has shifted for the basketball game Louisville and Kentucky will play Saturday at noon in Rupp Arena in downtown Lexington.
The question is not: Which team will win?
My four favorite college basketball analytics sites rank the Wildcats at least 20 points better than the Cardinals. Two formulas (Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik) put UK’s win probability at 98%?
If you’re a 2-percenter, I hope you go to the betting windows with gusto.
No, with Louisville losing 10 of its first dozen games and Kentucky (8-4) losing the four most difficult games on its schedule, The Question is this:
Will you watch (or attend)?
The game overlaps with the Music City football bowl game the Wildcats will play against Iowa in Nashville. Alabama will be playing Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl. Other college basketball games will dribble across the screen.
This will be the first U of L-UK game since Jan. 5, 2008 that both teams will carry at least four losses into tipoff?
Will you watch?
Of course, you should watch.
If you need a push, here are 5 Reasons You Should Watch the Louisville-Kentucky game.
1. What will Kenny Payne change about the Cards?
When you’ve lost to a pair of teams from the ASUN Conference, have six losses by 19 or more points and struggled how this U of L team has struggled, you have to consider doing things differently than you have done them since early November.
Payne said he asked the Cardinals’ players to use their holiday break to reflect on their performances and how they can improve. I asked Payne if he used the break to reflect on how he distributed playing time and shifts in strategy.
“First, I looked at a bunch of Kentucky games,” Payne said. “Second, I looked back at a few of our games where we played well.
“And I said, ‘Okay, what did we do when we played well?’
“The main thing I saw is that one, everybody who played was productive when they stepped on the floor. We took care of the basketball …
“… when we play well, everybody was involved. We're playing with the energy, a toughness, a fight. We're rebounding the ball. We're taking care of the ball.
“So I have to look at that. And then I have to look at combinations. Which is the hard part for me, finding who can play well with who, and when they played well.
“And to be honest with you, there's no rhyme or reason to it. I wish I could say that I’ve got seven guys that I know what I'm getting. I don’t.
“I wish I could say I’ve got four. I don’t.
“I don't know until the game is going on. And so what I'm constantly doing is shuffling it during the game and trying to figure out what's working at that moment.”
2. What will John Calipari change about the Wildcats?
The Hot Line has buzzed with criticism of Calipari this season, primarily because of the Wildcats’ offense. The critics chirp that by not shifting to a four out-one in offense Calipari continues to resist the latest great offensive philosophy of more reliance on the three-point shot.
Although Kentucky ranks 10th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage at 39.1%, the Wildcats only take 34.1% of their attempts from distance, which ranks 264th nationally and 11th in the Southeastern Conference in that category.
Too much dribble drive. Too much standing around and watching Oscar Tshiebwe work.
Instead of putting Lance Ware in the frontcourt with Tshiebwe, will Calipari consider a lineup of Tshiebwe, Sahvir Wheeler, Cason Wallace, Antonio Reeves and C.J. Fredrick (if healthy) that should be able to space the floor?
Stay tuned.
3. Has Louisville forward Sydney Curry turned the corner?
Let me make one thing perfectly clear: 5-8 would not be a spectacular record for Louisville but it would not be as alarming as 2-10.
But the Cardinals started the season with back-to-back-to-back 1-point losses. In those games, Curry averaged 1.7 points and 5 rebounds.
In Louisville’s last four games, Curry has looked like the guy he should be — the Cardinals’ best inside player.
Against Western Kentucky, Florida A&M, Lipscomb and North Carolina State, Curry averaged 12.8 points and 9 rebounds while making 69% of his field goal attempts.
The Cards beat WKU and A&M. They stumbled against Lipscomb. But the 12-point loss to NC State was the best U of has played against a Power 5 opponent.
Curry playing like Curry would have made a difference against Bellarmine, Wright State and Appalachian State.
I asked Payne if he believes Curry has turned a corner?
“I'm very happy with where Syd is headed,” Payne said.
“I’d like more. I like for his energy (to improve). I’d like for him to feel it. Not for me to see it or you to see it or the fans to see it.
“I want him to digest what he's done to get to this point. Being on a diet, seeing his body change, seeing his energy go up, eating right …
“… time will tell. I'm looking at this as another month will tell the story of if he really fully grasps just the importance of how you feel is connected to how you eat and how you live.”
4. Will Tshiebwe dominate?
Tshiebwe will clearly be the best player on the floor. Louisville does not have anybody who can match his relentless energy, his proven production or his ability to dominate the paint and rim.
A game of 20 points and 10 boards remains a minimum expectation from Tshiebwe, and he’s capable of a 30-18 afternoon.
What can Louisville do to control Tshiebwe?
“Well, you’ve got to understand how he's doing what he's doing,” Payne said. “He's relentless — more than people know.
“You're looking at a guy that is 6-7 or 6-8 But his energy and his effort to fight for every single rebound is relentless.
“Very rarely do you see a player that's fighting for low post position offensively, but also fighting for offensive rebounds but also screening his defender out so that the guard can drive and get layups.
“He's a force. And in order to deal with that force, you have to match it with that same energy, if not surpass it.”
Energy that relentless has not been a Louisville staple this season.
5. Who will win?
Louisville beat Western Kentucky because the Cardinals made 13 of 25 shots from distance and guard El Ellis delivered 30 points with 10 assists.
Michigan State (7 of 19), Gonzaga (7 of 19) and Missouri (10 of 25) all shot at least 37% from distance while beating Kentucky. Only UCLA (2 for 8) didn’t have a solid 3-point performance.
A Louisville upset seems highly improbable unless Louisville goes wild from deep. I don’t expect that.
Kentucky 73, Louisville 51.
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