LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- I know that Florida State has handled the University of Louisville basketball team twice with glaring gusto this season.
The Seminoles did it with 3-point shooting (see Jan. 4 at the KFC Yum! Center). They did it with relentless athleticism and dazzling depth (see Monday night in Tallahassee).
You and I can’t agree on even two teams we believe will make the NCAA Final Four in Atlanta. But we can agree on this:
Florida State has overwhelmed Louisville twice.
Right?
Right.
And, we can also agree on this:
Florida State is absolutely, positively better than Louisville by a combined 28 points in two games.
Right?
Wrong.
Three of the primary college basketball computer formulas that I follow (and generally trust) ranked Louisville ahead of the Seminoles on Tuesday morning.
That would be the grand master of college hoops analytics, Jeff Sagarin; Jim Boeheim’s whipping boy, Ken Pomeroy; and a rising star, Bart Torvik.
Something Florida State does gives the computer formulas heartburn.
Something Louisville does suggests the Cards are capable of winning a rematch if the teams meet again at the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament in Greensboro, North Carolina, in two weeks.
With Sagarin’s preferred predictor formula, which incorporates margin of victory, Louisville ranked sixth nationally (behind Duke, Kansas, Gonzaga, Michigan State and Baylor) after Monday’s games.
Florida State?
The Seminoles were No. 12, behind Ohio State and ahead of Seton Hall and No. 14 Kentucky.
Last week, after Louisville defeated Syracuse, Orange coach Jim Boeheim falsely charged that Pomeroy shared misinformation about which players on his team were responsible for defensive breakdowns. (Synergy Sports was more likely the responsible party, coach).
Now FSU coach Leonard Hamilton has reason to howl about KenPom.com because despite the Seminoles’ two victories over the Cards, Pomeroy’s formula ranked U of L 12th and Florida State 17th on Tuesday.
(For the record, Pomeroy has FSU ranked behind five nine-loss teams, including West Virginia, which has lost five of its last six.)
Torvik, who operates BartTorvik.com, also had Louisville 12th and Florida State No. 21.
Before Seminole Nation floods my Twitter feed with protests, I ranked Hamilton’s team No. 4 in the Associated Press Top 25 and U of L ninth on my ballot this week.
I check the analytics formulas. But I don’t have an analytics formula. I did find two that like FSU more than Louisville.
*The mysterious NCAA NET formula reacted to the result Monday night by bumping FSU from 12th to 8th and dropping Louisville from 7th to 11th.
*Erik Haslam, whose haslemetrics.com site is an interesting read, also ranks FSU (No. 14) ahead of the Cardinals (No. 15).
So, what’s the knock against the Seminoles?
It’s not the season-opening loss to Pittsburgh or FSU’s 16-point defeat against Indiana in Bloomington in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge (which is a great credential for Archie Miller’s team to show the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.)
You can argue that Louisville's losses to Georgia Tech and Clemson were more alarming than FSU's stumbles against Pitt, IU, Virginia and Duke.
Pomeroy built his following basing his rankings on Dean Oliver’s four factors that they believe impact winning: effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding and free throws generated per field goal attempt.
Florida State’s biggest vulnerability? Turnovers.
Hamilton’s team ranks No. 191 (of 353) nationally in turnover percentage, throwing the ball away on more than 19% of their possessions.
Make note of this: Virginia won the national title last season with a turnover percentage of 14.7%. In 2018, Villanova’s turnover percentage was 15 when the Wildcats won the national title.
North Carolina typically plays at a faster tempo than Virginia or Villanova. But the Tar Heels turnover percentage during their 2017 national title run was 16.2%, which ranked No. 39.
The last team to win a national title with a turnover percentage of at least 19% was Kansas in 2008.
FSU also does not feast at the foul line, generating free throws on 30% of their possessions. FSU is ranked No. 239 in that category.
KenPom students will remind you that a team should rank in the Top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency to be a front-row contender for the national title. FSU qualifies on defense. But not on offense. The Seminoles’ offense is ranked No. 35 in efficiency, which is not surprising considering their performance in turnovers and getting to the line.
For the record, the current list of dual qualifiers for the 2020 NCAA title is a tiny list: Kansas, Duke, San Diego State, (gulp) Michigan State and Michigan.
Five teams.
Not that it mattered to Florida State Monday night in Tallahassee.
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