LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — Legalized sports betting landed in Kentucky last season but the college football season had already started.
The last eight words of that sentence are critical. The delay in opening the sports books made it impossible for in-state patrons to indulge in one of the most enjoyable wagers on the football board:
Season win totals.
What better way to show that you know more than the wise guys or your friends by nailing a wager on how many games a team will win.
Louisville was predicted to win eight games during the regular season. The Cardinals snagged 10. If you were big on Jeff Brohm’s team, you cruised to a payoff.
Kentucky won seven, just as predicted. Push.
Indiana was down for 3.5 wins. The Hoosiers got three — and they also got an expensive coaching change. It seemed predictable.
Western Kentucky won seven during a season when the Hilltoppers were projected to snag 8.5 victories.
This year you can indulge.
The season win totals were posted several weeks ago in Las Vegas. If you enjoy research materials, the computer analytics models are spitting out their projected numbers, too.
ProFootballFocus, a pay site which does not restrict its work to the NFL, shared its data this week. It ranked Mark Stoops and Kentucky 19th in the nation, despite projecting that the Wildcats will play the 22nd most difficult schedule.
Even at No. 19 in America, Kentucky is ranked ninth in the Southeastern Conference. Better get all four of those non-SEC games, especially with road games with Ole Miss and Texas, likely Top 10 teams.
Louisville checked in at No. 28, behind Florida State, Clemson, SMU, North Carolina and North Carolina State in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Cards play four squads with higher pre-season rankings — Notre Dame (12), SMU (17), Clemson (15), and Kentucky (19).
Indiana has considerable work to do to dazzle PFF. The formula puts the Hoosiers at No. 87, last in the Big Ten.
Western Kentucky sits at No. 125 of 131 FBS programs.
I gathered the over/under win numbers at DraftKings.com. I found computer rankings at ProFootballFocus, ESPN’s FPI formula and TeamRankings.com.
My sidekick Eric Crawford and I shared our over/under plays on the four local FBS programs as well as on Notre Dame, Cincinnati (Scott Satterfield Year Two) and Purdue.
Clip, save, enjoy, disagree and share your picks at rbozich@wdrb.com.
Louisville
Draft Kings Line: 8.5 wins
ProFootball Focus Projection: 7.0 wins
ESPN FPI: 7.9 wins
TeamRankings.com: 8.1 wins
Analysis: The Cards’ schedule is split with six games at home and six away but they play five of the last six on the road. October home games with SMU (Oct. 5) and Miami (Oct. 19) will be critical to Louisville’s success because the Cards will play three of their toughest opponents (Notre Dame, Clemson and UK) on the road.
Bozich play: Under.
Crawford play: Under.
Kentucky
Draft Kings Line: 6.5 wins.
ProFootball Focus Projection: 7.1 wins.
ESPN FPI: 6.0 wins.
TeamRankings.com: 6.4 wins.
Analysis: UK realized the beauty of playing eight home games long, long ago — and this is one of those eight home game seasons. But the revised SEC schedule eliminated the soft launch the Wildcats enjoyed last year. Ending South Carolina’s 2-game winning streak in Week 2 will be a tell for Mark Stoops’ team.
Bozich play: Over.
Crawford play: Under
Indiana
Draft Kings Line: 5 wins.
ProFootball Focus Projection: 6.7 wins.
ESPN FPI: 5.3 wins.
TeamRankings.com: 5.2 wins.
Analysis: Indiana finally got the memo that scheduling three non-league wins at home was non-negotiable. Now the Hoosiers must deliver against FIU, Western Illinois and Charlotte. Penn State is finally off the schedule. Stealing a victory at rebuilding UCLA in Week Three would make a statement.
Bozich play: Over.
Crawford play: Pass.
Western Kentucky
Draft Kings Line: 7 wins
ProFootball Focus Projection: 6.8 wins
ESPN FPI: 6.0 wins.
TeamRankings.com: 7.1 wins.
Analysis: The Toppers are the consensus pick to finish second in Conference USA but Tyson Helton’s team plays its three toughest games on the road — Alabama, Boston College and Liberty in addition to making a trip to Sam Houston State, which played WKU tough last season. Remember: quarterback Austin Reed (Chicago Bears) and top receiver Malachi Corley (New York Jets) are gone.
Bozich play: Under.
Crawford play: Over.
Notre Dame
Draft Kings Line: 10 wins.
ProFootball Focus Projection: 8.2 wins
ESPN FPI: 10.1 wins.
TeamRankings.com: 9.8 wins.
Analysis: A 10-win number leaves room for only one stumble to cash. The Irish lost four times in coach Marcus Freeman’s first season and three times last year. The opener with Texas A&M and new coach Mike Elko is no gimme. Louisville, improving Georgia Tech and Florida State visit South Bend. And new quarterback Riley Leonard had trouble staying healthy at Duke.
Bozich play: Under.
Crawford play: Under.
Cincinnati
Draft Kings Line: 5 wins.
ProFootball Focus Projection: 5.2 wins.
ESPN FPI: 5.2 wins.
TeamRankings.com: 5.2 wins.
Analysis: The Bearcats underachieved mightily in Satterfield’s first season, slipping from nine wins to three. He’s banking on former IU quarterback Brandon Sorsby to lead the turnaround. The schedule is not awful. No Utah. No Oklahoma State. No Arizona. Those are three of the top five projected teams in the Big 12. But remember the Bearcats lost five times by two touchdowns or more last season.
Bozich play: Pass.
Crawford play: Pass.
Purdue
Draft Kings Line: 4.5 wins
ProFootball Focus Projection: 6.0 wins.
ESPN FPI: 4.5 wins.
TeamRankings.com: 4.2 wins.
Analysis: Year Two under coach Ryan Walters will feature quarterback Hudson Card, who had a solid debut after transferring from Texas. But the Boilermakers no longer enjoy the comforts of the Big Ten West Division, Purdue must play Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State, in addition to hosting Notre Dame and traveling to Oregon State.
Bozich play: Under.
Crawford play: Under.
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