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Hoops Notebook

BOZICH | Is Indiana underrated? Kentucky's troubling 3-point trend; Carlik Jones delivers

  • Updated
  • 2 min to read
Armaan Franklin

BLOOMINGTON, IN - DECEMBER 13, 2020 - guard Armaan Franklin #2 of the Indiana Hoosiers during the game between the North Alabama Lions and the Indiana Hoosiers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, IN. Photo by Missy Minear/Indiana Athletics

 Missy Minear/Indiana Athletics

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- No men’s basketball games on the Louisville, Kentucky or Indiana schedules until Saturday.

Thanks again, novel coronavirus.

If we cannot have games, we must have a College Basketball Notebook. I insist.

1. Who’s Overrated?

The Associated Press college basketball Top 25 drops at noon every Monday. As a voter, I believe the challenge of the early polls is comparing teams with huge gaps in strength of schedule.

I looked at the latest AP poll. Then, I measured it against my three favorite computer polls (Ken Pomeroy, Jeff Sagarin and Bart Torvik) to determine the most “overrated” teams.

Here are three teams the computer formulas don’t like as much as AP poll voters:

  • Michigan State
  • Missouri
  • Rutgers

The Spartans surged to No. 4 in the AP poll but rank No. 20 (KenPom), No. 39 (Sagarin predictor) and No. 21 (Torvik) with the computers. Tom Izzo’s team is 6-0 with one Top-25 win. They rank 42nd in defensive efficiency.

Missouri used its upset victory over Illinois to soar from No. 33 to 16 in the AP poll.

The power formulas ask the humans to slow the Missouri love. The Tigers sit 38 (KenPom), 37 (Sagarin) and 24 (Torvik) in the computers.

And, at No. 19, Rutgers is ranked nine or more spots higher than the Scarlet Knights are in the computer formulas.

2. Who’s Underrated?

Indiana, Michigan and Florida State have reasons to howl.

All three get better numbers from the computer formulas than they did in the AP poll.

Unbeaten Florida State sits 15th in the AP poll, but the Seminoles are 13, 9 and 10 by the computers. Michigan earned the final spot in the AP poll, but Juwan Howard’s team is ranked 14, 15 and 15 by the computers. IU slipped from 29 to 32 in the AP poll after its overtime loss at Florida State. But Archie Miller’s team is safely in the Top 25 in Pomeroy (15), Torvik (12) and Sagarin Predictor (11) — primarily because of a strong (No. 11) defensive efficiency.

3. What’s the rest of the local scene?

Louisville

  • KenPom: 22
  • Sagarin Predictor: 14
  • Torvik: 27

Kentucky

  • KenPom: 41
  • Sagarin Predictor: 58
  • Torvik: 47

Western Kentucky

  • KenPom: 82
  • Sagarin Predictor: 97
  • Torvik: 68

Bellarmine

  • KenPom: 261
  • Sagarin Predictor: 347
  • Torvik: 300

4. About That Kentucky 3-point Shooting …

Turnovers and struggles shooting from distance headline the fixes that John Calipari must make with his Kentucky basketball team before the Wildcats play UCLA on Saturday in Cleveland.

The Wildcats have gone 0-10 (Davidson), 3-21 (Kansas) and 5-23 (Notre Dame) from behind the arc in three of their four losses.

That made me wonder:

How does Kentucky’s three-point shooting rank in comparison with the Wildcats’ three-point shooting over the first five games during John Calipari’s first 11 seasons in Lexington?

Kentucky head coach John Calipari, top center, instructs his team

Kentucky head coach John Calipari, top center, instructs his team during a time out in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Notre Dame in Lexington, Ky., Saturday, Dec. 12, 2020. Notre Dame won 64-63. (AP Photo/James Crisp)

Through the magic of Ken Pomeroy’s website, still the best $19.99 investment any college basketball fan can make, I have the answer:

It’s the worst.

And it’s a trend. The Wildcats’ three-point shooting over five games the last two seasons has been the worst of the Calipari Era. Here are the five-game rankings, from best to worst, with names from those teams:

  1. .462, 2013 (Julius Mays, Kyle Wiltjer, Archie Goodwin)
  2. .411, 2012 (Darius Miller, Doron Lamb, Wiltjer)
  3. .380, 2010 (John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Darnell Dodson)
  4. .379, 2011 (Brandon Knight, Miller, Lamb)
  5. .371, 2018 (Wenyen Gabriel, Kevin Knox, Quade Green)
  6. .342, 2019 (Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson, PJ Washington)
  7. .319, 2014 (James Young, Aaron Harrison, Andrew Harrison)
  8. .305, 2017 (Malik Monk, Derek Willis, Mychal Mulder)
  9. .303, 2015 (Devin Booker, Tyler Ulis, Harrison twins)
  10. .260, 2016 (Ulis, Jamal Murray, Willis)
  11. .250, 2020 (Immanuel Quickley, Tyrese Maxey, Ashton Hagans)
  12. .244, 2021 (B.J. Boston, Terrence Clarke, Davion Mintz)

5. One Final Hat Tip

It’s early, but two local players have separated themselves with solid performances.

One is Louisville guard Carlik Jones, who has averaged 17.3 points, 7 rebounds and 5.3 assists for the unbeaten Cards.

Jones is ranked first, ahead of Keve Aluma of Virginia Tech and Matthew Hurt of Duke, in the player efficiency ratings for the Atlantic Coast Conference at Pomeroy.

Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis has been better. He ranks second to Iowa center Luka Garza in the Big Ten as well as the nation.

Jackson-Davis has a dazzling usage rate of nearly a third of IU’s possessions.

His free throw rate (how often a player gets to the line as measured by how often he attempts to score) is an impressive 72% — and he is making better than 71% of his free throw attempts. Jackson-Davis has also blocked nearly 6% of the two-point shots attempted when he’s been on the court.

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