LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The most memorable game of the 2024 local college baseball season is a game that was not played.
If you check the NCAA Tournament Field of 64 projections at Baseball America Wednesday, this is what you will discover:
After a jarring, ugly-for-their-resume loss to the Miami Hurricanes Tuesday in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament, the University of Louisville sits at No. 65 in a 64-team race, the first team left out of the party.
The Ratings Percentage Index numbers posted at WarrenNolan.com show that coach Dan McDonnell’s team fell seven spots, from No. 52 to No. 59, by losing to the 26-29 Hurricanes. The Cards are 32-23 overall.
The team sitting directly ahead of the Cardinals is a team that won its opener in the Big Ten Tournament by defeating Purdue, 8-6, Tuesday afternoon.
That would be coach Jeff Mercer’s Indiana squad, which is 31-22-1 this spring. Baseball America ranks the Hoosiers as the last team in its projected NCAA field. IU gained five spots in the RPI, climbing to No. 55, by handling the Boilermakers.
So it’s No. 64 Indiana vs. No. 65 U of L — and a reminder that the Indiana-Louisville game that was canceled by weather on May 14 has become the Most Important Rainout of the season. (Link to Baseball America projected field.)
Without the head-to-head, the Cards must make their case why they’re better than Indiana — with the Hoosiers responding why that is not true.
For the record, dissenting opinions have been filed. The D1Baseball website lists Louisville behind Cincinnati as the final teams not in the NCAA field. D1Baseball does not have Indiana playing next week. No mention of the Hoosiers, in fact.
On3Sports started the week with Louisville as the first team not to make the field and the Hoosiers the sixth team left behind. That was before Tuesday’s results.
Louisville has seven Quad I wins, one more than Indiana. Because of the fierce competition in the ACC, the Cards also have 15 Quad I losses, seven more than the Hoosiers.
Indiana can counter with a considerable edge in its non-conference strength of schedule.
IU went 15-13-1 outside the Big Ten against the schedule ranked No. 73 by the RPI formula. The Hoosiers have non-league wins over three teams projected to make the NCAA field — Coastal Carolina (No. 31), Dallas Baptist (No. 22) and Indiana State (No. 9).
Louisville went 16-8 outside the league against the non-league schedule ranked 236th. The Cards’ finest non-ACC wins came against No. 58 Cincinnati and No. 98 Western Kentucky.
On the flip side, IU also has five Quad 4 losses, including an ugly one to No. 241 Purdue Fort Wayne. Louisville has a pair of Quad 4 defeats one to Northwestern, another to Saint Bonaventure.
Neither U of L nor IU is finished with conference tournament play. There’s work to do.
Louisville has a final opportunity to dazzle the selection committee by defeating No. 10 Clemson Friday.
That will be the Cards' final game before Selection Monday. Contrary to what I thought Wednesday morning, Louisville cannot have the best record in pool play. The best the Cards can do is 1-1. If Miami beats Clemson, the Hurricanes advance with a 2-0 record. If Clemson beats Miami and then loses to U of L, the Tigers advance because of a better regular-season conference record.
Not good.
Indiana would benefit from beating Ohio State, ranked No. 56 in the RPI, in the Hoosiers’ second-round Big Ten Tournament game Thursday at 3 p.m. in Omaha, Nebraska.
In its latest bracket projection, Baseball America has Indiana slotted as a 3-seed in the Knoxville, Tennessee regional with the host Volunteers, Connecticut and Wright state.
BA ranks Kentucky the No. 4 overall seed with the Wildcats hosting a regional that would feature West Virginia, Xavier and Bowling Green.
If UK survived the opening weekend, the Wildcats would be line to host a super regional the following weekend. The Wildcats won their regional in Lexington last season but were swept by eventual NCAA champ LSU in the super regional. Kentucky is chasing its first trip to the College World Series in Omaha.
The 64-team will be announced Monday. Until then we can fuss about the projections — and the Louisville-Indiana baseball game that was not played.
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