LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Questions persist about John Calipari’s 12th and most confounding University of Kentucky basketball team.
What can Calipari do to fix the Wildcats’ sagging offense? The persistent turnovers? The ugly shooting?
What can the coach do to make his guys stop melting down in the final four minutes?
On Tuesday, Lance Ware, a Kentucky freshman, was asked if the Wildcats can win the rest of their games, all nine currently on the schedule.
“Absolutely,” Ware said. “I know our team thinks we can win the rest of our games.”
As they should. As any team should.
Let’s be honest. Most of the questions can be distilled into one:
Can the Wildcats make the NCAA Tournament?
Yes, they can.
By winning the Southeastern Conference Tournament.
I can even give you a reasonable forecast on the likelihood of that happening:
It is 6.25%. Stay with me. I’ll explain.
“Here’s the crazy thing,” Calipari said. “We’re not that far away. We’re really not.”
From winning one game? Sure. Maybe even a few in a row.
From winning enough games to climb into the NCAA Tournament? I’m sticking with 6.25%.
That is where the Wildcats (5-10) sit as they depart for Missouri, for the game they will play against the No. 18 Tigers Wednesday at 7 p.m.
After going on a 48-hour pause and having their home game against Texas canceled because of the novel coronavirus last Saturday, the Wildcats are scheduled to play two likely NCAA Tournament teams this week — Missouri, followed by a home game with Tennessee Saturday.
Calipari said COVID-19 would not be the reason any UK players missed the Missouri game. The coach said he worked with his guys to shoot without fear of missing and to play with more confidence in the final four minutes.
Ware said having two days off gave the UK players an opportunity to clear their minds. Ware said he sensed more energy, bounce and joy in practice Monday.
That’s a good and necessary first step. But the Wildcats’ losses to Richmond, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Auburn and Georgia (all unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament) put UK in a super-sized hole.
Odds are Kentucky will not finish among the top four teams in the SEC. That means they figure to play in the second round of the tournament in Nashville on March 11.
(Although Calipari has been an outspoken critic of conference tournaments for years, he said the Wildcats would not opt out of the SEC Tournament because of novel coronavirus concerns. He also said the NCAA would not allow a string of top teams to opt out without pulling the conference tournament’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. He’s absolutely correct.)
Balance is the word of the year in the SEC. After 9-0 Alabama, eight teams are within two games of second place, including Kentucky.
By winning at Florida, Kentucky showed itself capable of beating most SEC teams. By losing at Georgia, the Wildcats proved they are vulnerable every night.
To move the discussion forward, I’ll give them a 50% chance to win or lose every SEC Tournament game.
The math is not tricky. The calculator quickly showed the result of .5 times 4. It’s 6.25%.
Put me on record for that being being the probability of UK making the NCAA field.
This is a 10-loss team that has one non-conference credential — an opening victory over Morehead State.
This is the list of teams from the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten Pac-12, Atlantic Coast and Big East conferences with 10 or more losses:
Boston College, which is 3-10.
Miami, 7-10.
California, 7-12.
Washington, 3-12.
Kansas State, 5-13.
And Kentucky.
At the other five places, people do not ask if the program can make the NCAA Tournament. They ask if the coach will be fired.
Ask Bruce Weber (Kansas State), Jim Christian (Boston College) or Jim Larranga (Miami).
So it goes. The Wildcats are bound for Missouri, where they opened as a 4 1/2-point underdog. Nobody would be shocked if they delivered the upset.
But even if they do, they’ll have to win four straight games in the SEC Tournament to get to where they want to be this season.
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