LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — Five games into its Atlantic Coast Conference basketball schedule the University of Louisville men’s basketball team has flashed improvement.
The Cards’ win at Miami last Wednesday deserves another look. Not only was it the Hurricanes’ largest homecourt loss since Feb. 24, 2021, it was Miami’s second home loss in 27 games.
“I think (Louisville is) a good team and getting better,” Miami coach Jim Larranaga said Monday on the ACC coaches’ teleconference.
Yes, the Cards are better.
No, they aren’t where they need to be.
The analytics’ formulas project Louisville (6-10) is primed to win 4 of its 20 ACC games. The Cards have major work to do — and not a great environment to do it.
The schedule has officially entered its most difficult stretch. Back-to-back-to-back games against North Carolina (road), Wake Forest (road) and Duke (home), a trio that has won 13 of 15 league games.
Then comes a home game against Virginia, the program that always torments the Cards.
Then a road game against Clemson, which flirted with the Top 25 for most of this season.
With three of those five games on the road, the probability tables are against Kenny Payne’s team doing as well as the Cards did in their first five ACC games — going 1-4.
I looked at the results of Louisville’s first five ACC games this season.
Then I looked at how Louisville performed in five games against the same five programs in similar conditions last season.
Then I looked at how Louisville played in its first five ACC games last season.
Here are the numbers:
This season — at Virginia Tech; at Virginia; Pitt; at Miami and North Carolina State
1 win, 4 losses. Cards have been outscored by 41 points (average margin 8.2 points)
Last season (same teams) — Virginia Tech; at Virginia; Pitt; Miami; at N.C. State.
0 wins, 5 losses. Cards were outscored by 73 (average margin 14.6 points).
Last season (first 5 ACC games) — Miami; at Florida State; at North Carolina State; Syracuse; Wake Forest.
0 wins, 5 losses. Cards were outscored by 70 points (average margin 14 points).
Better? Yes. Where they need to be? Not yet.
Some other numbers about Payne’s second team. At Ken Pomeroy’s website he features four factors that he believes are critical to successful teams:
Effective field goal percentage (a way of measuring a team’s shooting percentage by giving more weight to three-point shooting).
Turnover percentage (percentage of turnovers per possession).
Offensive rebounding percentage (percentage of rebounds per field goal attempts).
Free throw attempts per field goal attempts.
This U of L team has improved in seven of eight categories, four on offense, three on defense. The biggest jumps are in turnover percentage — down to 17.6% from a dreadful 22.3 and free throw attempts per shots. That number has jumped from 32.0% to 40.6.
The only number that has gone backwards is defensive free throws allowed per field goal attempts. That has moved from 30.6 to 31%.
To win more games, the Cards need to start by taking better shots and stop breaking down on defense.
They rank 256th in effective offensive field goal percentage. Only nine teams from Power Six conferences are worse.
The Cards rank 259th in defensive effective field goal percentage. Only two Power Six teams — California and DePaul — are worse.
After Louisville’s unlikely win last week, Larrnaga’s headlined post-game quote in the Miami Herald was this:
“We were awful from start to finish.”
He was not finished criticizing his team, which has disappeared from the Top 25 after starting the season ranked No. 13 in the AP poll.
“I’d like to give Louisville a lot of credit, but quite frankly we were lethargic,” Larranaga said.
Hmmm. That’s not calling the Cards’ win a fluke but it’s in the same area code.
Monday morning on the ACC coaches’ weekly teleconference I asked Larranaga if despite his unhappiness with his team, what was the biggest improvement that he saw from the Cardinals?
“Well, I would say a number of things in preparing for Louisville,” he said.
“No. 1, I really liked their balance in their attack. You know, having having the big fella (Brandon Huntley-Hatfield) inside gave them an inside presence.
“But then they got great, great perimeter play. Mike James was really on a roll. His first-half performance against us was tremendous.
“And I think the other players have been very complimentary to what Kenny Payne wants to do, and when you get good chemistry offensively, that often times helps your defense.
“I thought they really had a good defensive game plan. I said after the game we played awful, but I gotta give Louisville the credit because they really did a good job on (Miami center) Norchad Omier.
“They did a very good job of getting in the paint on their offensive possessions. And we ended up fouling them a lot (only 14 fouls, actually the same total as U of L), way more.
“We’re one of the top 10 teams in the country in not fouling but they got to the foul line.
“So when you have good balance in your offense, you have a couple of guys really shooting the ball well on the perimeter and then you have a big guy …”
… and then you have the formula Louisville must follow to upgrade from a team with better statistics to a team with a better record.
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