NCAA Illinois Kentucky Basketball

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Some people start with effective field goal percentage when analyzing winning college basketball teams. Points per possession scored and allowed are two more favorites.

But when you study the Sweet Sixteen teams for the second weekend of the men's NCAA basketball tournament, push those statistics into the shredder.

How many transfers are on your roster?

That's the topic of the day in college basketball, especially on Monday, the day the NCAA transfer portal officially opened for coaches to start building rosters for the 2025-26 season.

Of the 80 players likely to start in the four men's regionals in Newark, Atlanta, Indianapolis and San Francisco this weekend, 50 transferred to their current program at one point during their careers.

That's 62.5% of the starters and 3.1 players per team.

Three teams, including Kentucky, will start only transfers. Mark Pope started over after he replaced John Calipari, building a team with 0.00 returning points.

One Sweet Sixteen coach will not start a transfer.

Can you identify that man?

I thought it would be Tom Izzo of Michigan State.

Wrong.

But it is somebody equally Old School — Matt Painter of Purdue. In fact, Painter lost a guy who might have been in his rotation — forward Mason Gillis, who left for a bench role at Duke.

Purdue started a transfer — guard Lance Jones — when the Boilermakers advanced to championship game last season, but it not part of the DNA for this Painter team.

Here is the scorecard on transfer starters in the Sweet Sixteen:

  • Five: UK, Michigan and Arizona
  • Four: Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Texas Tech and Ole Miss
  • Three: Arkansas, Tennessee, and Maryland
  • Two: BYU and Houston
  • One: Duke and Michigan State
  • None: Purdue

If you're wondering why there is only one team (Arkansas, a 10), seeded lower than 6 remaining in the field, check the portal. The power conference teams using the mid-majors as their farm teams.

Four one-seeds, three two-seeds, two three-seeds and three four-seeds survived the opening weekends, which translates into a field that held form. A dozen of the top 16 teams advanced.

The sample size is small, but we're left with teams from only four conferences — seven from the Southeastern, four from the Big Ten and Big 12 and Atlantic Coast.

NIL talks, Cinderella walks.

No mid-majors need apply. Low majors? You're kidding, right?

You won't find Belmont, Charlotte, FIU, North Florida, Longwood, Oakland or Saint Peter's representing Cinderella in the Sweet Sixteen, but you will find their former players sprinkled across the power conference rosters.

This trend toward big boys only began last season when San Diego State (Mountain West) and Gonzaga (West Coach) were the only teams outside the power conferences to survive the first two rounds.

But two seasons ago, San Diego State, Princeton (Ivy League), Florida Atlantic (Conference USA) and Gonzaga powered into the Sweet Sixteen, which SDSU and FAU pushing all the way into the Final Four.

FAU and SDSU are represented in the 2025 Sweet Sixteen — with players and a coach at other programs.

Dusty May left FAU for Michigan, taking center Vladislav Goldin to Ann Arbor with him. Johnell Davis, the top player on that FAU Final Four team, jumped at the opportunity to play for John Calipari at Arkansas.

FAU finished 18-16 and lost its NIT opener to Dayton this season. The Owls' 15 minutes of fame are over.

Lamont Butler made the shot that beat FAU in the national semifinals before the Aztecs lost to UConn in the title game. Butler will try to direct Kentucky to its third consecutive victory over Tennessee Friday nigh at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

San Diego State made the NCAA Tournament but was blitzed by North Carolina in a first four game in Dayton last week.

Remember a decade ago, when the Final Four was played at Lucas Oil?

That was the last time that a freshman-powered team won the title as Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones and Grayson Allen carried Duke and coach Mike Krzyzewski past Wisconsin in the title game.

Guess how many freshmen project to start in one of the 80 Sweet Sixteen starting spots this weekend?

The answer is nine — with a third of the total coming from top-ranked Duke. The Blue Devils still shop at Hermes, while stuffing their roster with 5-star recruits like Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach.

The other schools staring freshmen are Alabama, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Maryland, Purdue and BYU. All six start one.

But there's no time left to talk about freshmen. This season's freshmen are headed in that direction. The portal is where the action is. And the creation of the teams that will make the 2026 Sweet Sixteen is well underway.

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