LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — When the universities of Louisville and Kentucky meet at Kroger Field on Nov. 30, they’ll be playing for more than the Governor’s Cup this season.
They’ll be playing for winning seasons.
Heck, they (especially Kentucky) might be downgraded into playing for a bowl invitation.
That is the conversation that percolates around teams when they are 4-3 (Louisville) or 3-4 (Kentucky).
Any lofty preseason goals of competing in the 12-team national playoff?
Gone.
Any ambitious preseason goals of making a conference championship game or being ranked in the Top 25?
Gone.
Escalating chatter about what has gone wrong and what needs to be fixed as quickly as possible?
That is not gone. That’s where we are in 2024 as the season trickles past the mid-point of the schedule.
For Louisville and coach Jeff Brohm, the projected final win total at ESPN’s Football Power Index slipped to 7.3, even though the Cardinals remain ranked 17th in the nation after losing to Miami last Saturday.
The FPI numbers still project Louisville favored to beat Boston College, Stanford, unbeaten Pittsburgh and Kentucky.
But the Cards have clearly slipped behind Miami, Clemson and SMU this season and they’ll need considerable assistance to catch the Hurricanes, Tigers or Mustangs.
Translation: The Cards are on track to finish 8-4 or 7-5.
That’s not awful. But it is a step backwards.
And it does not create any happy talk after Louisville finished 10-2 during the regular season last year and started the 2024 season convinced the Cardinals would be even better or certainly as good, considering the upgrade Brohm made at quarterback with Tyler Shough.
Well, Shough has been legit.
But the Louisville defense has not been legit. It’s been an ongoing issue.
In the Cards’ four victories, Louisville has allowed 13 points per game.
In the Cards’ three defeats, the number is 39 points per game.
Yes, most of the difference can be attributed to the quality of opponents. But Notre Dame, SMU and Miami have gashed Louisville for 433 yards per game. Miami’s 52 points were the most the Cardinals since the final game of the 2021 season against Kentucky.
“You've got to be aggressive in calls,” Brohm said. “You've got to be lined up and set when the ball is snapped. You got to let those guys play. And we got to be sharper in our execution.
"And when we do make certain calls, we know what it is. We need to be in the right spot at the right time. Sometimes that doesn't happen.
“We've got to have some vocal leadership on defense, and some guys that are communicating, taking the bull by the horn and saying, ‘We're going to get this done.’ So I just think all of us need to continue to work through some things that have not gone well. Address it, work hard at improving.”
No wonder there is so much speculation about the futures of co-defensive coordinators Ron English and Mark Hagen.
At Kentucky, the grumbling has been just as relentless. The Wildcats have a better win that the Cardinals delivered. Their upset victory in Oxford when Ole Miss was ranked No. 6 the premier performance by either program.
Kentucky defensive lineman Octavious Oxendine (8) reacts after sacking Mississippi quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Mississippi Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in Oxford, Miss. (AP Photo/Randy J. Williams)
But Kentucky lost to South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Florida, three programs the Wildcats handled last season.
The ESPN FPI numbers project that Kentucky will be favored in two of their final five games — Auburn’s visit to Kroger Field Saturday night and an insignificant game against Murray State on Nov. 16.
The analytics say Kentucky will finish 5-7, giving the Wildcats a 10% win probability at Tennessee, a 5 % win probability at Texas and a 32.2 win probability when Louisville comes to Kroger Field Nov. 30.
Put away your calculators: That means that UK coach Mark Stoops will be paid $1.8 million per victory this season, considering the USA Today coaches’ salary data base places his pay at $9 million and ranks him the 9th best paid head coach in college football.
Stoops changes offensive coordinators faster than I change socks. It shows. He needs to be a guy, pick a philosophy and recruit to it.
The Wildcats rank last in the Southeastern Conference in scoring offense, passing offense and long passing plays. They rank next to last in total offense. They’re 12th in third-down conversions.
If Louisville fails to defeat Boston College Friday (and the Cardinals are favored by 7 points), it will be fair to wonder if a winning season is out of the question.
If Kentucky fails to defeat Auburn Saturday night (and the Wildcats are favored by 2 1/2 points), it will be fair to wonder if a bowl game is out of the question.
This season the Governor’s Cup figures to have more than a trophy riding on it.
More Football Coverage:
- BOZICH | ACC Power Ratings Week 8: Louisville parked behind 4 teams
- BOZICH | Against Miami, Louisville needs Jeff Brohm's trademark: An October Surprise
- BOZICH | Miami gives Louisville football big challenge, bigger opportunity
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