LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — With apologies to Kenny Loggins, Darrell Griffith and the remainder of the 1980 University of Louisville men’s basketball team, this is it for the Cardinals.
Wednesday night at 7 against Georgia Tech, which is 8-13 and 1-10 in the Atlantic Coast Conference
Saturday afternoon at 2 against Florida State, 7-15, 5-6.
Both games are booked for the KFC Yum! Center.
If the Cards don’t beat either the Yellow Jackets or Seminoles, it’s more than reasonable to say they will not … well, you can finish the remainder of the sentence.
This is it.
“Beating Georgia Tech would be huge for us, moving forward the last 10 or so games,” U of L forward J.J. Traynor said. “That’s the plan.”
“We’ve both kind of had that chip on our shoulders,” said U of L freshman Kamari Lands. “If we could come out with this one it would give us a big boost for the rest of the season.”
According to the computer power ratings at Ken Pomeroy’s website, there are 10 men’s teams from the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Southeastern Conferences with ratings of 150 or worse.
Five of those teams compete in the ACC.
Two of them are the teams the Cardinals host this week — Georgia Tech, No. 198 and Florida State, No. 158.
In other words, it’s not going to get any more favorable than this until next November. After this week, there’s a nice chunk of Virginia, Pitt, Duke and Miami ahead for the Cards.
Pomeroy gives the Cardinals a 40% win probability against the Yellow Jackets, forecasting a 69-66 Tech victory. The formula likes FSU, 75-70, giving U of L a 33% shot against Leonard Hamilton and the Seminoles.
Another analytics site, BartTorvik.com, puts the numbers at 37% against Tech and 32% against FSU.
This is it.
Before I go on about the Yellow Jackets and Seminoles, this is the time to mention that the Cards (2-19, 0-10) sit at No. 300 in KenPom — 34 spots below California and 57 behind South Carolina, the closest programs in the ratings from the Power Six leagues.
After showing improvement against North Carolina State, Wake Forest and Clemson while also losing a game they should have won against Syracuse, Louisville has sagged again over the last four games, all double figure defeats.
“I don’t try to focus on the season and how it is,” Lands said. “I just try to play basketball, day in and day out, working on my game.”
“Nobody wants to be in the situation we’re in,” Traynor said. “But I feel like you can look at it as a learning process. Learn from it and continue to get better.
“We’re going through a hard time but I try to just be appreciative of the moment of the moment we’re in and still being able to play in front of thousands on TV. That’s still a huge blessing that many people don’t get to experience.”
But here comes Georgia Tech, which has lost five straight games by 11 or more points — and the last three by an average of 27.
On Saturday in Atlanta, Duke doubled the score (86-43) on Josh Pastner’s reeling team. The Yellow Jackets made 17 field goals in 40 minutes. Their five starters shot 9 for 38.
Tech has the worst effective field goal percentage as well as the worst three-point shooting percentage (30.1) in ACC play. Tech has won one road game — by 2 points against Georgia State.
The Yellow Jackets’ defense against two-point field goals ranks last in the conference.
In other words, teams have been able to score at the rim against Tech.
This is it.
Florida State is a trickier opportunity. Much trickier.
The Seminoles have already handled the Cards with gusto, posting a 22-point win in Tallahassee Dec. 10.
The FSU team that lost non-league games to Stetson, Troy and Siena, has won ACC games against Notre Dame (twice), Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh and Louisville.
The Seminoles actually sit in 10th place in the ACC, pending their game at North Carolina State Wednesday night.
FSU is stronger on offense than it is on defense. The Seminoles have allowed an average of 84 points in their last six losses.
But that’s Saturday. Wednesday night is the Cards’ time to deliver an ACC victory.
“Not just me, but everyone on staff needs to see the big picture,” U of L assistant coach Danny Manning said. “That’s the biggest thing.
“A lot of times you get in situations like this and you want this quick fix.”
At this point the quick fix is off the table. What people want is the Cards’ first Atlantic Coast Conference victory.
This is it.
Copyright 2023 WDRB Media. All rights reserved.
