LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Here we go. College football roars on to the menu Saturday with 11 games. Insiders like to call it Week Zero.
It's Week Zero for Louisville, Kentucky and Indiana, because those three programs don't start until next week. It is not Week Zero in Bowling Green, because Western Kentucky is featured in the first game of the season when the Hilltoppers host Austin Peay at noon (EDT) at Houchens-Smith Stadium.
After rolling to a 9-5 record and a three-touchdown bowl victory over Appalachian State in 2021, WKU is eager for year four of the Tyson Helton Era. The Hilltoppers are also a tad uneasy while trying to replace 11 starters with a string of changes across the assistant coaching staff.
The five members of the WDRB sports staff — Eric Crawford, John Lewis, Tom Lane, Griffin Gonzalez and I — will file our picks for WKU, IU, UK and U of L over the next week.
Let's start with the team that should open with a victory Saturday over the Governors. WKU has won five straight and seven of eight against Austin Peay.
The Question: How will the Hilltoppers replace all that offense?
Quarterback Bailey Zappe took his 5,967 yards passing and 62 touchdowns to the New England Patriots. Jerreth Sterns took his 16 touchdown receptions to Tampa Bay. Linebacker DeAngelo Malone is trying to cause havoc with the Atlanta Falcons. Mitchell Tinsley is listed as a starting receiver at Penn State.
The Answer: Helton returned to work the transfer portal like an NFL coach working the free-agent market. There are 40 transfers on the WKU roster, 20 added for this season. Of the 40, 17 formerly played at Power 5 programs.
The name to watch is a guy who did not arrive from a Power 5 program: quarterback Austin Reed, who went 22-3 as the starter the last two seasons at West Florida. That's not a BCS program That is a Division II program in Ferry Pass, Florida, near Pensacola. At 6 feet, 2 inches tall and 230 pounds, Reed looks the part.
Reed was good enough in preseason camp to win the job over Jarret Doege, a talented transfer from West Virginia. Apparently, Doege was also impressed by Reed, because after he learned that Reed was the starter, Doege bolted for Troy, which plays WKU on Oct. 1.
The Dependables: Defensive end Juwuan Jones has 46 starts over four seasons and contributed 45 tackles last season. Tight end Joshua Simon returns after missing all but one game because of an injury last season and was Phil Steele's pick at the top TE in Conference USA. Receiver Daewood Davis averaged more than 17 yards per reception. Cornerback Kahlef Hailassie is another all-league performer who contributed two interceptions while breaking up five passes. Kicker Brayden Narveson is a legitimate weapon, converting all 72 extra points while drilling 23 of 29 field goal attempt-s, including five from 40 or more yards.
The Rising Star: Receiver Michael Mathison arrives from Akron, where he had 56 catches for 706 yards last season.
The Tidbits: With the departures of former co-offensive coordinators Zach Kittley (Texas Tech) and Bryan Ellis (Georgia Southern), Helton has Ben Arbuckle, Josh Crawford and Zach Lankford running the show. Since joining Conference USA in 2014, WKU has 63 victories, three more than any other CUSA program. Tthe Hilltoppers have 20 players from Kentucky, but only a pair from Louisville: linebacker Bryson Washington (PRP) and receiver Easton Messer (Christian Academy). WKU beat UT-Martin in its 2021 season opener.
The Schedule: Because the Hilltoppers' trip to Hawaii next weekend does not count toward games played, WKU is booked for 13 games, six at home. WKU gets an extra week of preparation before visiting Indiana on Sept. 21. WKU played the Hoosiers to the wire in a 33-31 loss in Bowling Green last season. The Hilltoppers finish with three of their last four on the road, including a Nov. 19 trip to Auburn.
The Predictions: The consensus pick for the Hilltoppers from the five members of the WDRB sports staff is 6-7. Here are the individual picks.
- Eric Crawford: 7-6
- "Vegas puts the over/under at eight wins, and ESPN's ratings give the Hilltoppers a better than 50% chance of covering that number. But Tyson Helton has major holes to fill, and a lot of things will have to go just right for WKU to get to eight wins."
- John Lewis: 5-8
- "A leading candidate for QB enters the transfer portal two weeks before the season? This after what felt like a mass exodus after the season is a red flag. That kind of instability in camp is worrisome. This may not be the Toppers' season."
- Tom Lane: 6-7
- "Bailey Zappe's not walking through that door. They are hoping Austin Reed (transfer from West Florida) provides something resembling the major jolt they got from Zappe a year ago."
- Griffin Gonzalez: 6-7
- "Few teams in the country had a bigger shakeup than Western Kentucky this off season. With the new faces on the offensive side of the ball and the departure of offensive coordinator Zach Kittley for Texas Tech, it may just be too big of a task to win seven games. They will find a way to compete and come close but they will find themselves on the short end of the stick in seven of their games."
- Rick Bozich: 7-6
- "The Tops lost a lot more than just Zappe from their roster and their coaching staff, so this is a tricky prediction. Helton followed his first nine-win season by going 5-7. The drop-off should not be as steep this time because of his work in the transfer portal."
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