LEXINGTON, Ky. (WDRB) -- Few roads to the Kentucky Derby are as storied -- or as soaked -- as the one that leads through Lexington this year.
Keeneland’s signature spring race, the $1.25 million Blue Grass Stakes (G1), was supposed to highlight Saturday’s card. Instead, after several days of torrential rain and flooding across Kentucky, it’ll run Tuesday evening. Same post time. Same stakes. Just a little more mud on the tires.
The race still holds its place as one of the most important final preps on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, offering 100 qualifying points to the winner, 50 to the runner-up, with 25, 15 and 10 to the next three finishers. For several in this seven-horse field, it’s a final chance to lock in a trip to Churchill Downs.
It’s a compact group, but a good one.
One entry in the field – Owen Almighty – already is safely in the Derby field, at No. 11 in points. Four others – Chancer McPatrick (24th, 35 points), Burnham Square (27th, 30 points), Render Judgement (28th, 29) and River Thames (29th, 25) – have a bit more work to do, but likely would make the field with top three finishes, depending on position, and how others finish.
The likely favorite is River Thames, a 5-2 morning-line choice trained by Todd Pletcher and now ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. The son of Maclean’s Music has not been worse than second in three starts and comes off a strong runner-up finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), where he stalked the pace and was nailed late by Sovereignty, who came back to finish second in the Florida Derby. That result burnishes River Thames, but there are mild distance questions — both on paper and in pedigree — as he stretches to 1 1/8 miles for the first time.
Chancer McPatrick (7-2 in the morning line), a two-time Grade 1 winner at two, looms as the main threat. Trainer Chad Brown didn’t open his 3-year-old campaign until March 25 after a sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall. He returned with a good second behind Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and figures to take a step forward in his second start off the layoff. He’s got a strong late kick and may get the perfect setup just behind what figures to be a solid early pace.
That pace could come from several places. Owen Almighty (3-1), who won the Tampa Bay Derby wire to wire, has tactical speed and hasn’t finished worse than second in his last five starts. He was initially pointed to the Pat Day Dirt Mile (on Derby Day) by trainer Brian Lynch, but he could be getting a bit longer test on the first Saturday in May with a strong showing in the Blue Grass.
“The distance is always a bit of a concern,” Lynch said. “But he seems to be doing well – has had a couple of good works since the Tampa Bay Derby, so we’re prepared to see where we’re at with him after this race. . . . The best part of his gallops are toward the end of his gallops, so we like to think that he can get the trip.”
East Avenue (3-1), the Breeders’ Futurity winner, returns to the scene of his biggest win and adds blinkers — a clear signal he’s going to go to the front. And River Thames has shown he can press or take the lead if needed.
If the fractions get too sharp early, Burnham Square (4-1) — who won the Holy Bull (G3) but regressed last time out — could come running late.
“He made some mistakes in the Fountain of Youth but he did some good things, too,” trainer Ian Wilkes said. “He came running down the lane and galloped out good.”
Admiral Dennis (20-1), a longshot closer trained by Brad Cox who hasn’t had much racing luck but has been finishing his races with energy, could be another one running late. Ken McPeek's Render Judgment (20-1), second in the Virginia Derby last time out, will need to take a major step forward on speed figures but does have experience at the distance.
With the race now shifted to a Tuesday, in cooler conditions (temps in the mid 40s at post time) and on what should be a drying track, the Blue Grass loses nothing in significance.
There’s Derby pressure in every prep this once the calendar turns to April. That hasn’t changed. It’s just that this year in Lexington, it’s arriving a couple days later than expected.
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