LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- When the Atlantic Coast Conference put this Louisville-North Carolina men’s basketball game on the league’s master schedule last fall, I’m certain the league expected it to be a marquee moment.
ESPN took the broadcast with its top national crew. North Carolina was expected to press Duke for the ACC title under first-year coach Hubert Davis. Louisville was a sleeper selection to contend with some experts.
That’s not how the season has unfolded. The Cards are unlikely to play in the post-season beyond the ACC Tournament in two weeks. North Carolina is ranked one of the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament field by Joe Lunardi of ESPN.
In other words, the Tar Heels really, really, really need to beat Louisville Monday night.
Time/Place: Monday, 7:01 p.m., Smith Center, Chapel Hill, N.C.
TV: ESPN, Dan Shulman, play by play; Jay Bilas analyst; Andraya Carter, sidelines.
Records: Louisville 12-14 overall, 6-10 in the Atlantic Coast Conference; UNC is 19-8, 11-5.
The Last Time: Did you have to ask? The last time these teams played was 20 days ago in Louisville. A few misguided whistles and a few crazy plays went Carolina’s way in 90-83 UNC victory in overtime. Three different officials will work this time — Jeffrey Anderson, Kipp Kissinger and Doug Sirmons.
The Ratings: Neither team is rated in the AP poll. The Tar Heels are 43rd in Ken Pomeroy’s computer power formula and 42nd in the NCAA Net. Louisville’s numbers in those two polls are 129 in KenPom and 124 in Net. KenPom forecasts a 79-68 UNC victory, giving the Cards a 16% win probabliity.
The Quote: North Carolina center Armando Bacot had 19 points and 22 rebounds the first time the teams played. U of L interim coach Mike Pegues was asked what U of L had to do differently in this game:
“Armando Bacot is going to be Bacot but he can't have Wilt Chamberlain numbers. He is a 20-20 machine, he can’t have that. He is going to play, and he is going to get his numbers, but we have to contain him.”
The News: Louisville ended its 7-game losing streak by defeating Clemson on Saturday. UNC is the first of three consecutive road games for the Cards before they finish the regular season at home against Virginia on March 5. UNC has been a strange team, one of the more disappointing teams in the nation. The Tar Heels lost their last home game to Pittsburgh and have lost four other games by 17 or more points, including 29-point thumping by Kentucky.
The Matchup That Matters: Bacot is indeed a beast, the only ACC player averaging double figures in points (16.1) and rebounds (12.2). The Cards will need a combination of Jae’Lyn Withers, Sydney Curry and Malik Williams to defend him.
Strengths: The Tar Heels are third in the ACC in scoring (77.8) and first in free throw percentage. The Cards are third in offensive rebounding.
Weaknesses: The Tar Heels rank 13th in the ACC in scoring defense, ahead of Syracuse and N.C. State. They are No. 11 in defensive field goal percentage. Louisville ranks 14th in three-point shooting percentage (31.4) but third in attempts with 657 in 26 games.
Tasty Tidbits: UNC has won four of the last five meetings between the programs … the Tar Heels have four guys averaging at least 13 points per game and no other active plays averaging even 5. Forward Dawson Garcia, their fifth leading scorer, left the Tar Heels to return to his family in Minneapolis after 16 games. Louisville guard Noah Locke has scored in double figures in three of the last four games, but Louisville still doesn’t have a player averaging 10 points per game for the season. The Cards have averaged 9.6 turnovers over their last 10 games.
Prediction: UNC 81, Louisville 69.
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