LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Last week it was too soon to declare that Kentucky faced a Must Win in its home opener against Ole Miss.
It's no longer too soon -- not after the Wildcats rushed for 8 zillion yards and gobs of touchdowns while losing to the Rebels, 42-41, in overtime at Kroger Field.
You don't want to be 0-3 after playing 40 percent of your home schedule and still be facing games with Tennessee, Florida, Alabama and Georgia, all teams ranked in the Top 14 in the country.
Beating Mississippi State, which was ranked No. 16 last week before the Bulldogs lost to Arkansas, won't be easy for Mark Stoops and the Wildcats. But it is essential for Kentucky to maintain any shot at a winning season.
1. Time: 7:30 p.m. Saturday; Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky.
2. Where to Watch: SEC Network (Tom Hart; Jordan Rodgers; Cole Cubelic). UK Sports Network, 840 AM WHAS in Louisville (Tom Leach; Jeff Piecoro; Dick Gabriel).
3. The Line: Kentucky opened as a 3-point favorite but the line dropped to 2 by noon Friday; Over/Under total points: 57 1/2.
4. Analytics: Jeff Sagarin's computer formula favors the Bulldogs by 3.92; But ESPN's Football Power Index puts UK's win probability at 64.8 percent.
5. The Last Time: With Terry Wilson injured, Kentucky was not ready to make the switch to Lynn Bowden Jr. at quarterback. The Wildcats completed only 15 of 42 passes in a 28-13 loss at Starkville. The home team has won the last five games in the series.
6. The Records: State is 1-1, negating a season-opening win at LSU by losing its home opener to lowly Arkansas last week. Critics immediately chirped that was the typical outlandish variation in play delivered by a Mike Leach team. Kentucky is 0-2, losing winnable games against Auburn and Ole Miss.
7. The Player to Watch (Miss State): Against LSU, State quarterback K.J. Costello looked like a contender for the Heisman Trophy, throwing for 623 yards and five touchdowns as State rolled, 44-34. Against Arkansas, Costello looked like the guy who struggled at times during his three seasons at Stanford. Although he completed nearly 73 percent of his throws, Costellos also threw three interceptions. Leach said Costello forced too many passes, trying to get two touchdowns with one throw. He also said that his quarterback needed to concentrate on spreading the ball to more receivers. Costello is not the game's most mobile quarterback. He has been sacked six times, losing 39 yards.
8. The Player to Watch (UK): In two games State has passed the ball 120 times with only 40 rushing attempts (including sacks). Translation: The Bulldogs attack everywhere, which means middle linebacker Jamin Davis, UK's leading tackler, will be critical. Arkansas rushed only three men for most of the game, dropping eight in coverage. The Air Raid thrives on short passing plays, making productive linebacker play a key.
9. Sideline Storylines: Leach, 59, achieved his initial fame during the two seasons that he coached quarterback Tim Couch at UK while serving as the offensive coordinator for coach Hal Mumme at UK … Leach said he loved his time in Lexington and is looking forward to his first return, although as a huge horse racing fan, Leach has attended the Kentucky Derby, including the press party … for all the talk about the MSU passing game, State's defensive numbers get overlooked. The Bulldogs rank first in the SEC in defensive yards allowed per carry, limiting LSU and Arkansas to 1.91. Kentucky leads the league in offensive rushing yards per game (276.5) as well as yards per carry at 5.76 … Mississippi State also leads the SEC in sacks with 10 while Kentucky has gotten to opposing quarterbacks three times … The Wildcats have played eight true freshmen in their first two games, including defensive backs Vito Tisdale, Carrington Valentine and Joel Williams.
10. The Quote: Leach, the former UK assistant, was asked for his thoughts on the Wildcats:
"Tough, gritty team. It'll be a contrast of them running the ball and using the clock. We're going to throw it. They're good on defense. Both defenses are starting to kind of take shape. I know they gave up some points, but a lot of them were shots that hit for Ole Miss. But down in and down out, they played better than the score suggests."
11. Social Media:
"Extremely motivated because you know you've got another great challenge ahead of you. It reinvigorates you. It gets your juices going." 🗣 @UKCoachStoops pic.twitter.com/r5lYtVAbvy
— Kentucky Football (@UKFootball) October 8, 2020
12. The Picks: Eric Crawford has it MSU 38-35. Tom Lane also likes the Bulldogs, 34-31. Sports director Aaron Matas went with State, 40-35. John Lewis picked UK, 38-31. Rick Bozich also went with the Wildcats, 35-31.
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