Post Positions: The Kentucky Derby's luckiest and unluckiest spots

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, post position isn’t destiny – but it’s still pretty important. When the posts are drawn for Kentucky Derby No. 151 Saturday night, trainers will be rooting for middle of the field. But do the numbers back up their preferences?

The Derby hasn’t always used a starting gate. Before 1930, horses walked up to a line drawn on the track. From 1930 to 1941, they broke from a manually-operated gate. In 1942, the first electronically operated 14-stall gate was used. A six-stall auxiliary gate was used if more horses entered.

Today, Churchill Downs uses a single, seamless 20-stall gate, eliminating both the crush against the rail at No. 1 and the gap between stalls 14 and 15. Still post positions matter.

“You don't want to be No.1,” said Ian Wilkes, who trains Blue Grass winner Burnham Square. “And you don't want to be No. 20. I'd probably take one over 20, but I don't want to be there, you know. Somewhere in between. . . . The No. 1 is a tough spot. You’re buried. You got no chance to get yourself in a position. And in the 20 you’re in the parking lot, shaking hands with fans. And you’ve got to work over to try to save ground.”

A bit of gate trivia (numbers since a gate was first used in 1930):

-- Most successful post: More horses have won the Derby from the No. 5 post than any other – 10 winners, the most recent Always Dreaming in 2017.

-- No. 17? No way: Nobody has won from the No. 17 post in 45 tries, with only three finishers in the money. The closest was Forty Niner, who finished second in 1988.

Starting gate wide.jpg — On the second floor of the Kentucky Derby Museum you will find a starting gate that was used in 17 derbies.

-- Long droughts: Besides that, the longest drought without a winner belongs to post No. 14, which hasn’t seen a winner since Carry Back in 1961. Other cold streaks – No. 12 hasn’t had a winner since Canonero II in 1971 and three spots to the left, No. 9 hasn’t had a winner since Riva Ridge in 1972.

-- Outside shot: The far outside post, No. 20, isn’t coveted by many, but it has produced two winners in 19 starts – a winning percentage of 10.5, which ties the No. 5 post for highest percentage of winners in the race. The No. 5 spot has produced 10 winners in 95 tries.

-- Top in-the-money spot: The post with the highest percentage of finishers in the money (first, second or third), is No. 10, with 29.5 percent of its 88 starters in the money. Next is Post No. 2, with 27.4 percent of its 95 starters in the money – a reliable starting spot despite not having produced a Derby winner since Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978.

-- Average finishes: The best average finish for a post position belongs to the No. 5 post, with an average finish of 7.45. The worst average finish in the first 20 spots is the No. 17 post, at 11.24.

-- Posts to avoid: Beyond No. 17, where do you not want to be? The No. 19 spot has the lowest percentage of finishers in the money – just 6.5 percent of its 31 starters.

-- Recent repeat winners: In the last 10 runnings of the Derby, only two posts have had multiple winners. The No. 7 post (Mandaloun, who won by DQ in 2021, and Justify in 2018), and the No. 15 post, which had Authentic in 2020 and American Pharoah in 2015. (Note: Bob Baffert-trained horses crossed the finish line first in each of those races).

-- Hot spots: Post No. 3, which just produced Mystik Dan’s victory in 2024, has quietly become more interesting after years in the shadows. His win was the first there since Real Quiet in 1988. The No. 8 post has been surprisingly strong over the years, producing nine winners, most recently Mage in 2023.

Here's a look at how each Kentucky Derby post position has fared since the introduction of a starting gate in 1930.