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BOZICH | First projected look at AP college basketball Top 25

  • Updated
  • 3 min to read
Zach Edey Purdue

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The email crackled into my mailbox Tuesday afternoon from New York City.

Ballots for the Associated Press college basketball preseason Top 25 and all-American team are due Oct. 10. The AP will release the season's first poll Oct. 17. Practice cranked up Tuesday.

I’m not ready to make my final selections yet. Hey, somebody still has time to pop into the portal, right? (Kidding. Sort of.) There are several eligibility issues that must be settled. (Not kidding.)

But considering this is a market where you can write about college basketball every week of the calendar, and it’s time for me to dive into the rosters, and sorting through these teams gives me tremendous pleasure, I settled on doing this:

I compiled the preseason forecasts from six respected college basketball outlets — Blue Ribbon, The Athletic, ESPN, The Almanac, Lindy’s, and Bart Torvik’s analytics site.

According to my data, 18 teams made the Top 25 in all six outlets. That tells me they will make the cut for the AP poll.

Three programs earned No. 1 votes — Kansas claimed four; Duke one (The Almanac) and Purdue one (Bart Torvik).

Fifteen programs earned Top 10 recognition.

After looking at the numbers from the half-dozen polls, this is my projection at how the initial AP Top 25 will look:

  1. Kansas (28-8) — I know everybody is gaga about the arrival of Hunter Dickinson from Michigan. He’s a decorated college player but the last time he was seen on the court Dickinson and the Wolverines lost to Vanderbilt in the second round of the NIT.
  2. Purdue (29-6) — I respect Matt Painter and believer he’s a terrific coach. But he needs to flush Fairleigh Dickinson, Saint Peter’s and North Texas.
  3. Duke (27-9) — If anybody can unseat Purdue’s Zach Edey as the national player of the year, it’s Duke forward Kyle Filipowski.
  4. Michigan State (21-13) — Tom Izzo will add a trio of Top 50 recruits to a solid collection of returnees.
  5. Connecticut (31-8) — The backcourt carried the Huskies last season; The front-court of Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban will do the heavy lifting this season. Danny Hurley did excellent work last season.
  6. Tennessee (25-11) — Rick Barnes scored in the portal by adding Dalton Knecht, who averaged 20.2 points at Northern Colorado. But he also lost Chris Ledlum, a Harvard grad who bounced out of Knoxville to St. John’s about 20 minutes after he arrived.
  7. Marquette (29-7) — Shaka Smart has 5 guys capable of averaging double figures.
  8. Creighton (24-13) — The Blue Jays return 3 starters, including skilled big man Ryan Kalkbrenner, from a team that should have grabbed San Diego State’s spot in the 2023 Final Four.
  9. Houston (33-4) — Kelvin Sampson is a shark in the transfer portal where he added L.J. Cryer (Baylor) and Damien Dunn (Temple).
  10. Gonzaga (31-6) — Drew Timme will not be back for his 13th season. I think.
  11. Florida Atlantic (35-4) — Credit coach Dusty May for holding on to all 5 starters from his Final Four team in a world where program loyalty is going, going, gone. His players must love playing for him.
  12. Arizona (28-7) — Coach Tommy Lloyd loves the portal and welcomed former North Carolina guard Caleb Love on the rebound from Michigan. Good thing or risky business?
  13. Kentucky (22-12) — The Wildcats are ranked as high as No. 11 by Blue Ribbon and as low as No. 18 by Lindy’s as they wait for their roster to settle.
  14. Texas A&M (25-10) — Every year Buzz Williams collects a little more talent and respect.
  15. Baylor (23-11) — This seems too ambitious for a team that lost Cryer, Adam Flagler and Keyonte George.
  16. Arkansas (22-14) — Transfer U will have local viewers keeping an eye on former Louisville guard El Ellis, who some outlets do not project as a starter.
  17. North Carolina (20-13) — The Tar Heels started last season ranked No. 1 and failed to make the NCAA Tournament. Hubert Davis has some proving to do.
  18. Texas (29-9) — Coach Rodney Terry scored big in the portal with Max Abmas of Oral Roberts.
  19. Miami (29-8) — As Jim Boeheim, Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski have left the stage, Jim Larranaga has become the respected dean of ACC coaches with a powerful NIL punch.
  20. Villanova (17-17) — Seems like a stretch to put a 17-loss team this high with Jay Wright settling in for his second season with CBS.
  21. San Diego State (32-7) — It doesn’t matter who’s on Brian Dutcher’s roster. His team can muck it up with the best of them.
  22. USC (22-11) — Veteran Boogie Ellis and freshman Isiah Collier give the Trojans a backcourt that can play with anybody.
  23. Saint Mary’s (27-8) — Randy Bennett always figures something out in the shadow of Gonzaga.
  24. Alabama (31-6) — The Crimson Tide lost 5 of their top 6 players. Color me skeptical.
  25. Virginia (25-8) — Colorado, Florida, TCU, Auburn, Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Illinois and Rick Pitino (St. John’s) also drew consideration for this spot.

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