LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The college basketball action has shifted from the court to the transfer portal. The Masters will present its green jacket at Augusta National late Sunday afternoon.
Normalcy is creeping back into the sports world.
Next? Kentucky Derby 147, just 20 days away.
A year after the novel coronavirus shoved the Derby from the first Saturday in May to the first Saturday in September, odds are the Churchill Downs grandstand will be at 40 to 50% capacity with limited accessibility to the infield on May 1.
After a year of fussing about masks and temperature checks, it’s time to consider the characters who will dominate Derby 147 coverage.
Five questions — and five semi-answers — to help you talk Derby.
1. Will trainer Bob Baffert break his tie with Ben Jones and become the first person to saddle seven Derby winners?
It’s always risky pouring vinegar in his latte, but Baffert doesn’t have American Pharoah, Justify or any horse likely to be the Derby favorite in his barn.
That’s not how it looked several weeks ago, when Baffert, as usual, had the most powerful collection of contenders. In mid-March, Baffert’s barn was described as "overstocked," and "dazzling."
Then Life Is Good was ruled out of the Santa Anita Derby with an ankle chip. Medina Spirit was dusted by more than four lengths in the Santa Anita Derby. Hozier finished runner-up in the Rebel and last in the Arkansas Derby.
Baffert usually has another horse — or more. This time the horse was Concert Tour, the favorite in Saturday's Arkansas Derby.
Concert Tour looked like a colt that needed another rehearsal — and not at a mile-and-a-quarter.
Positioned perfectly in the stretch to win the Arkansas Derby, Concert Tour faded to third, beaten about three lengths over a mile-and-an-eighth.
"You get beat and try to figure out; they're still young and they're still having these races," Baffert said. "Sometimes, you learn more from a loss than a win. Right now, he got beat. I can make any excuses for him right now."
Translation: It wasn’t great, but it’s always too soon to dismiss Baffert.
2. Who will be the Derby favorite?
Essential Quality — and the essential quality to know about this colt is he is trained by Brad Cox, who grew up within walking distance of Churchill Downs and graduated from Iroquois High School
Essential Quality is 5 for 5, including a pair of races this year. He broke his maiden as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs on Derby Day 2020. He’s won a race at Oaklawn Park and three at Keeneland, including the Bluegrass Stakes on April 3.
But he only scored by a neck at Keeneland, which won’t discourage 19 horses from trying to stop him at Churchill Downs.
3. What’s the most sentimental story?
The best story is more compelling than the best horse. This year that will be Super Stock.
The colt positioned himself to be second-betting choice with a crackling stretch drive to win the Arkansas Derby by two-and-a-half lengths Saturday.
He’s trained by Steve Asmussen, a Hall of Famer who has the most starts (21) of any trainer who has yet to win the race.
One of his owners is Asmussen’s father, Keith. And Asmussen’s son, who is also named Keith, rode the colt three times early in his career. Set that one to music and watch the tears flow.
4. Are there other recognizable faces?
Plenty. Doug O’Neil won the Derby in 2012 with I’ll Have Another and again in 2016 with Nyquist. Hot Rod Charlie looked Derby capable while winning the Louisiana Derby.
Todd Pletcher could saddle three or four Derby horses, led by Known Agenda, who won the Florida Derby.
John Sadler has never finished better than sixth with 4 Derby starters, but Rock Your Wold looked capable while winning the Santa Anita Derby.
5. What are the wise guys saying?
Nobody is rushing to pick the favorite. At the conclusion of NBC’s coverage Saturday of the Arkansas Derby, analysts Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss were asked for their Derby selections.
Neither picked Essential Quality.
"There are two that have separated themselves, just a slight bit," Bailey said. "Essential Quality, he just wins, and Rock Your World. We don’t know the limit on him. He was just brilliant in his only dirt performance.
"Then you have Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Medina Spirit, even maybe Known Agenda, right below those. After that there are like five or six surprises that we’ve seen in the preps that, who knows?
"Listen, anything can happen. But I think there are at least two and maybe five horses that are a little bit better than what we saw today by Super Stock and from the Wood Memorial winner (Bourbonic)."
Moss said the current crop of 3-year-olds is so lightly raced that they’re difficult to handicap. Everybody is learning about their capabilities.
But they were pressed for picks.
"I would take Hot Rod Charlie, actually," Bailey said. "I think he’s on the improve."
"Ahhhhhhhhhh," Moss said. "I'll go against the favorite and take Rock Your World."
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