LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- I did not check with Woodward and Bernstein but I did uncover 29 predictions for the winner of the NCAA Men's College World Series, which unfolds Friday at Charles Schwab Stadium in Omaha, Nebraska.
The rundown is a scoreboard that can be posted in the University of Kentucky locker room by coach Nick Mingione:
- Tennessee: 16 votes to win the title.
- Texas A&M: five votes
- North Carolina: three votes
- Florida: two votes
- Kentucky, Florida State and Virginia: one vote
- North Carolina State: 0 votes
Kentucky will play N.C. State in its opening pool play game at 2 p.m. Saturday on ESPN.
(For the record, I tabulated the votes from stories at Baseball America, ESPN, D1Baseball, USA Today and Gannett newspapers.)
To those predictions, I say this: The Wildcats have better than a 3.4% chance (1 in 29) to win the five or six games necessary to score in Omaha.
Las Vegas oddsmakers have Kentucky the third overall pick, behind Tennessee and Texas A&M. If you wager $100 on the Wildcats, you'll make $450 if they deliver.
I understand why Tennessee is the favorite. The Vols don't swing bats. They swing sledgehammers. They bludgeon opponents with their offense.
UT led the nation with 173 home runs, 22 more than runner-up Georgia and an absurd 41 more than any of the other seven remaining teams (Texas A&M launched 132 but the Aggies will be without Braden Montgomery, one of their top hitters, in Omaha).
But the gap between Tennessee and Kentucky is not 16-to-1 wide. It's more like 9-to-8. There is a reason that Mingione was named the winner of the Dick Howser Award as the national coach of the year on Friday. The man finds ways to win games.
Here are three reasons Kentucky can win the College World Series:
1. Nobody is pitching better than the Wildcats in this tournament.
You might dig the long ball. I dig pitching, especially when critical games are on the line. And if Kentucky pitches the way the Wildcats pitched in the regional and super regional, beware.
The Wildcats allowed 11 runs in five games — and eight came in their tournament opener against Western Michigan.
After that burp it was one run against Illinois, the first shutout Indiana State suffered this season, the first shutout Oregon State suffered this season and two runs by the Beavers in Sunday's elimination game..
In their last four games, Kentucky has allowed 14 hits — 13 singles.
That's a winning formula in March, June, September or October. No wonder the Wildcats have yet to trail for a single inning in five NCAA Tournament games.
For the record, this is how many runs per games the eight teams have allowed in their NCAA Tournament games:
- Kentucky 2.2
- Virginia 3.2
- Florida State 4.0
- Texas A&M 4.2
- N.C. State 4.3
- UNC 4.7
- Tennessee 4.8
- Florida 6.8
2. The analytics favor the Wildcats.
Tennessee is top-ranked team in the human polls — and deserving of the recognition. According to Keith Law of the Athletic, the Volunteers have three of the nine top-50 prospects for the 2024 Major League Baseball Draft.
Florida State has a pair. Kentucky (left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt), Florida, North Carolina and Virginia each have only one.
But at WarrenNolan.com, another picture unfolds — the results from the Ratings Percentage Index, a computer formula that the NCAA uses to analyze the field.
This is how the eight CWS stand in the RPI:
- 1. Kentucky
- 2. Texas A&M
- 3. Tennessee
- 4. North Carolina
- 5. Florida State
- 9. North Carolina State
- 10. Virginia
- 13. Florida
The Wildcats have the best winning percentage in the nation against Quad I opponents — .714, built on winning 20 of 28 games. The Vols are second in that category at 70%, winning 21 of 30.
3. Kentucky mastered small ball.
Many college baseball parks are launching pads. Charles Schwab Stadium has become more home run friendly but there is also reason to play small ball. It's 335 feet down both lines, 375 feet to the power alleys and 408 feet to center field. Typically the wind conditions favor the pitchers not the hitters.
Only 10 home runs were hit at the College World Series there in 2012, the second year after the event was moved from Rosenblatt Stadium. In 2013 and 2014 the number dropped to three.
College baseball made a rule change involving its bats before the 2015 season and the numbers have improved.
Teams have combined to hit 22 or more home runs the last four seasons. In fact, last season a record 35 home runs were launched, led by national champion Louisiana State, which hit a dozen.
But Ole Miss won in 2022 with just seven home runs in six games, the same total Vanderbilt hit while scoring in 2019.
If the ball is not flying, Kentucky can score in other ways. The Wildcats average two stolen bases per game, tops among the eight teams. They are are also tied for first in sacrifice bunts with 43.
Pitching, defense and base-running will be the ticket for Kentucky in Omaha.
Related Stories:
Copyright 2024 WDRB Media. All Rights Reserved.
