LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — Have you settled on your projected final record for the University of Louisville football team this season?
At VegasInsider.com, the projected win total flashed at 6.5 Tuesday morning.
Hmm. I’m collecting season predictions from the WDRB sports staff for the Cards as well as Kentucky, Indiana and Western Kentucky.
I’ll begin sharing them later this week, with WKU kicking off the local season at home against Austin Peay Saturday. I invite you to share your predicted season records for all four squads. Simply send me an email at rbozich@wdrb.com.
Odds are I’ll go with the Over on the Cards, even through they play four of their first six away from home. But that’s not my biggest hesitation in calling for seven victories.
This is my biggest hesitation: Louisville’s defense ranked in the bottom half of the Atlantic Coast Conference in scoring, passing and total defense last season.
When you study the Cards’ schedule, Louisville will face a dynamic string of quarterbacks. Five are ranked among the Top 20 in the nation by ProFootballFocus, and two others are ranked in the Top 44. Several who aren’t ranked have experience and credentials. There are no chumps.
The Louisville defense has allowed more than 400 yards per game in three of the last four seasons. Improving that number will be a test against this string of quarterbacks.
Let’s call the roll:
Game One — Garrett Shrader at Syracuse Sept. 2. Unranked by ProFootballFocus.
A fourth-year junior, Shrader transferred from Mississippi State and took the job from Tommy DeVito after four games last season. He’s not a great passer, completing less than 53 percent of his throws. But he did run for nearly 800 yards and 14 touchdowns, which makes him dangerous because the Orange have the ACC’s top back in Sean Tucker.
Game Two — John Rhys Plumlee, at UCF Sept. 9. Unranked by PFF.
Another dangerous runner, perhaps more dangerous than Shrader. Plumlee set the Ole Miss freshman running record in 2019 with 1,023 yards and 16 touchdowns. Once Lane Kiffin took over, he lost the job to Matt Corral and moved to receiver. Plumlee didn’t get many balls and decided he wanted to play QB. Playing it for Gus Malzahn should be fun — and interesting.
Game Three — Jordan Travis, Florida State at Louisville Sept. 16. Ranked No. 44 by PFF.
The former Card and Bobby Petrino recruit had a good but not great season with the Seminoles. Although he completed nearly 63 percent of his throws, he averaged less than 154 yards per game. He didn’t play in FSU’s loss to Louisville, but figured it out down the stretch, throwing for 274 yards in a win against Miami, 251 in a win at Boston College and 202 in a loss to Florida in the Seminoles’ last three games.
Game Four — Gerry Bohanon, USF at Louisville Sept. 24. Unranked by PFF.
Beware: Bohanon started a dozen games at Baylor, helping the Bears roll to a surprising 12-2 season. What’s he doing at USF? Bohanon lost the job in spring ball and bolted to the Bulls, where coach Jeff Scott named him the starter last weekend. Bohanon led all Big 12 quarterbacks with 9 rushing touchdowns and threw for another 18. Scott told the Tampa Bay Times that Bohanon completed 80% of his passes in the team’s first 10 practices.
Game Five — Phil Jurkovec, at Boston College, Oct.1. Ranked No 37 by ProFootball Focus.
Jurkovec makes it five straight guys from the transfer portal. He started at Notre Dame but left for BC in 2020. He threw for more than 300 yards in four of the Eagles’ first five games but injuries limited his effectiveness the second half of the season. An injury pushed him to the sidelines for half of 2021. But Jurovec’s arm and size convinced Phil Steele to rank him the 13th best NFL quarterback prospect among eligible players.
Game Six — Brennan Armstrong, at Virginia, Oct 8. Ranked No. 7 by ProFootballFocus.
Now the fun begins. Armstrong led the ACC in passing last season, averaging 404.5 yards per game, topped by his 487-yard performance against Louisville. That was one of six games when Armstrong threw for more than 400 yards. He’s got a quick, powerful left-handed release. He also has extra motivation: ESPN did not name him one of the Top 100 players.
Game Seven — Kedon Slovis, Pittsburgh at Louisville Oct. 22. Ranked No. 9 by ProFootballFocus.
Guess what? Another transfer portal guy. When Lincoln Riley brought Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma, Slovis bolted to Pitt. Although Slovis has yet to be named the starter officially, he was impressive throwing the deep ball in a recent scrimmage. This is a guy who threw for 3,502 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2019 when he was named Freshman of the Year in the Pac-12.
Game Eight — Sam Hartman, Wake Forest at Louisville, Oct. 29. Ranked No. 5 by ProFootballFocus.
I know Hartman will miss the beginning of the season because of a non-football medical condition. Wake coach Dave Clawson suggested Hartman will return this season so it’s reasonable to believe he will be ready by late October. Hartman is the complete package. He led Wake to the ACC Atlantic title last season and leads all active FBS passers in career yards with 9,266.
Game Nine — Todd Centeio, James Madison at Louisville Nov. 5. Unranked by ProFootballFocus.
The Dukes are making the move from FCS to competing as an FBS program in the Sun Belt Conference. Coach Curt Gignetti has yet to name a starter, but Phil Steele forecasts that it will be Centeio, a transfer from Colorado State, who also played at Temple. He’s a dual-threat guy who threw for 527 yards and five touchdowns at Hawaii last season.
Game 10 — DJ Uiagalelei, at Clemson, Nov. 12. Unranked by ProFootballFocus.
Two years ago he was ranked the top quarterback prospect in America as well as the overall No. 10 recruit. He sat behind Trevor Lawrence for most of his freshman season but looked the part in starts against BC and Notre Dame. But 2021 was a slog. Uiagalelei completed less than 50 percent of his throws in 5 games while finishing with more intereceptions (10) than touchdowns (9). Some Clemson fans are ready to move on.
Game 11 — Devin Leary, North Carolina State at Louisville, Nov. 19. Ranked No. 12 by ProFootballFocus.
The Wolfpack are trying to position Leary as a contender for the Heisman Trophy and many people believe he is the frontrunner for ACC player of the year. With 35 touchdown passes last season, Leary broke the season record of Philip Rivers. He was terrific against the Cards, throwing 4 TD passes without an interception in a 28-13 N.C. State win.
Game 12 — Will Levis, at Kentucky, Nov. 26. Ranked No. 19 by ProFootballFocus.
Levis also put up 4 touchdowns against U of L last season but all four were with his legs. The hype is percolating around Levis, but he needs to prove he can cut back on his 13 interceptions while succeeding without top receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and offensive coordinator Liam Coen.
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