UL UTEP Chucky Hepburn

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- The first forecasts are in — and they're blustery, harsh and chilly for Pat Kelsey's University of Louisville men's basketball team.

Four of the major college hoops predictive analytics formulas have made their forecasts for the Cards game against Kentucky at 5:15 p.m. Saturday at Rupp Arena in Lexington.

All four are calling for a UK victory by 11-14 points.

I'll call the roll:

  • Ken Pomeroy: UK 83, U of L 72, with UK win probability of 85%
  • Bart Torvik: UK 84, U of L 73, with UK win probability of 84%
  • Evan Miya: UK 83, U of L 70, with UK win probability of 86.7%
  • Erik Haslam: UK 84, U of L 70 (no win probability provided)

What does that guarantee?

Bulletin board material for the Cardinals. Water cooler conversation. A chance for Kelsey's team to shock the commonwealth.

I looked at any predictive numbers I could find for recent U of L/UK games.

Last season, Pomeroy had UK beating U of L, 86-73. The Wildcats won, 95-76.

In the 2022-23 season, KP called it UK, 79-56. The score was 86-63. (Well done.)

A year earlier, the teams did not play. In 2020-21, the pick was U of L 69, UK 65. The Cards won, 62-59.

In 2019-20, Pomeroy's pick was U of L, 66-65. The Wildcats prevailed in overtime, 78-70.

Draw your own conclusions.

Several numbers jump off the page:

*Kentucky ranks eighth in the nation in defending the three-point shot. The Wildcats' opponents have made only 26.3% of their attempts from distance.

Louisville's three-point shooting remains broken. The Cards have made only 27% of their 318 shots from distance.

*Expect a record number of three-point attempts. Mark Pope's team takes better than 42% of its shots from distance. For Louisville, the number is 53%, the sixth-highest total in the nation.

Considering the success UK has had defending the three, will Kelsey dial down the three-point attempts?

*Haslam has identified the Wildcats as one of the best offensive teams in America. He ranks UK as the seventh-most efficient offense as well as a team that plays at the 14th fastest tempo. It's been a winning style as well as an entertaining style.

*Torvik notes that one of the most impressive qualities of Pope's team is the Wildcats have won a pair of games (Duke and Gonzaga) when they trailed for a significant portion of the game.

Against Duke, UK trailed by an average of 3.1 points over the course of the game before winning by 5. Against Gonzaga, the average gap was even greater — 6.3 points. Kentucky stormed back from an 18-point deficit to win 90-89 in overtime on the road. Impressive.

*Louisville's numbers are better on defense than offense. The Cards rank 42nd nationally in defensive efficiency but 79th in offensive efficiency.

*Haslam says Louisville has played the nation's 17th most difficult schedule and slots the Cards as the sixth-best team in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

*James Scott played one of his best games of the season in the Cards' 77-74 victory over UTEP on Wednesday night. He delivered 11 points and 11 rebounds, while committing only one turnover in 29 minutes. That was his season high in minutes.

With Kasean Pryor out of the season with a torn ACL, Scott's minutes should continue to increase. Scott's offensive game has been limited to mostly layup and dunks. He has made his last nine field goal attempts.

But credit to him for not taking shots outside his comfort zone. According to Pomeroy, Scott ranks first in the nation in field goal shooting percentage. He's at 90.6%, making 29 of 32 attempts.

*The other Cardinal who has been elite in an individual statistical category is point guard Chucky Hepburn. He's 10th in steals percentage at 5.8%. Hepburn has delivered at least 3 steals in six of Louisville's 10 games.

*The top two Kentucky players in the national ratings with Pomeroy are Koby Brea and Amari Williams.

Brea has the 10th best offensive rating of any Division I player while Williams ranks 16th in defensive rebounding percentage. Williams has grabbed 30% of opponents' missed shots when he is on the floor.

Breat can break any game open with his three-point shot. He's made 32-57 (56.1%). His 5-8 performance against Colgate Wednesday was the fourth time this season Brey has made 4 or more shots from distance in a game.

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