LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — Remember the days when Brian Brohm served a year as Stefan LeFors’ backup before he took charge of the Louisville football program and directed the Cardinals to Gator and Orange bowls?
Or the time Tim Couch spent (wasted?) splitting time with Billy Jack Haskins before Kentucky hired Hal Mumme and gave the keys to Couch for two dazzling seasons?
That’s not the way that it works in college football today. Rare is the player who waits his turn and then takes control, especially at quarterback.
As Evidence A, introduce the quarterback situations at Louisville, Kentucky, Indiana and Western Kentucky as we near the start of the 2024 seasons.
All four schools are depending upon new quarterbacks. All four schools have entrusted the job to players they fetched out of the transfer portal.
That’s Tyler Shough (Texas Tech) for Louisville; Brock Vandagriff (Georgia) at Kentucky; Kurtis Rourke (Ohio University) at Indiana and T.J. Finley (Texas State) at WKU.
All four schools are convinced they have found their guy. All four fan bases are energized.
And the records of all four schools are challenging to predict because of new quarterbacks and other reinforcements fetched from the portal.
Results will begin to file in this weekend. Until then, here is a clip and save edition of season record projections for the Cardinals, Wildcats, Hoosiers and Hilltoppers from the WDRB sports staff.
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Tyler Greever: 9-3 … Phil Steele thinks Western has 12 preseason all-conference players and that guy has been putting magazines together long before I ever knew what a Hilltopper was or the treasure Big Red really is. The Tops are projected to finish second in Conference USA. A trip to Murfreesboro for 100 Miles of Hate vs. Middle Tennessee State and late-season visit to Liberty before closing with Jacksonville State at home, who is picked to finish third in CUSA, could determine WKU's push for its first 10-win season since 2016.
Tom Lane: 7-5 … Tops stay above .500 and stay competitive in Conference USA.
Eric Crawford: 9-3 … WKU: Tough ones at Alabama, Boston College and Liberty, but I like the Hilltoppers in the rest.
Rick Bozich: 7-5 … ProFootballFocus puts WKU at 6.8 wins. ESPN’s FPI Index says 6. I believe that is noteworthy. What’s the issue? The Tops lost Austin Reed, the best passer in Conference USA the last two seasons and T.J. Finley needs to show more than he’s shown while bouncing from LSU to Auburn to Texas State to WKU. And for all the talk about the trips to Alabama and Boston College, WKU faces a tough September home game against Toledo. The Rockets went 11-3 last season and have not suffered a losing record since 2009.
ESPN FPI: 6.0-6.2.
PFF: 6.8-5.2.
WDRB Consensus: 8-4.
INDIANA
Tyler Greever: 5-7 … Whatever my prediction is, I like Curt Cignetti's confidence to try and give IU some swagger because the program's history does not offer much confidence in a really quick start. But I do think Indiana's first five games give the Hoosiers a not-so-crazy shot at going 5-0: FIU, Western Illinois, at UCLA, Charlotte and Maryland. But the back half of it is brutal: at Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington, at Michigan State, Michigan, at Ohio State and Purdue.
Tom Lane: 7-5 … Hoosiers reach a surprising 7 wins in year one under Curt Cignetti, helped also by 8 home games
Eric Crawford: 4-8 … I am probably overly pessimistic. I just googled — Curt Cignetti not only wins, but he is a really good coach. This is likely a pick where my gut feeling could be steering me wrong.
Rick Bozich: 5-7 … Curt Cignetti’s trademark line was “Google me,” when asked why he’s confident he can turn IU football around. Yes, Cignetti has never suffered a losing season as a head coach. But I’ve seen enough Memorial Stadium misery to say you also need to Google “Indiana football.” And when you do, you’ll notice that since 1965, one of 10 IU coaches delivered a winning season in Year One. That was Bill Lynch, who went 7-6 in what was actually the third season of the Terry Hoeppner Era in 2007. Yes, IU has eight home games. Yes, Penn State, Oregon, USC and Iowa are not on the schedule. But this is Indiana football until proven otherwise.
ESPN FPI: 5.3-6.7.
PFF: 6.7-5.3.
WDRB Consensus: 5.3-6.7.
KENTUCKY
Tyler Greever: 7-5 … Another year, another offensive coordinator, another quarterback. Kentucky has earned the expectation of having a typically strong defense and Deone Walker is an absolute freak to wreak havoc within it. I am concerned about the lack of in-game experience for Brock Vandagriff because UK hosts South Carolina and Georgia while going to Ole Miss … within its first five games. If he can step up enough in the biggest moments and use a talented group of receivers while doing it, that changes things.
Tom Lane: 7-5…Cats take advantage of eight home games to get to another bowl game in year 12 under Mark Stoops.
Eric Crawford: 8-4 … I keep getting the feeling that the SEC has slept a bit on Kentucky this season, though that’s understandable. Eight home games — though one of them is against Georgia. Should win at Florida. Hard to be too optimistic without seeing more of the offense.
Rick Bozich: 6-6 … If you’re scoring at home, that is three Top 15 opponents on the road — Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas. No. 1 Georgia visits Kroger Field in Week Three and the Bulldogs have won 14 straight against UK. I know UK has beaten Florida three straight as well as two of the last three in Gainesville. But playing in The Swamp is not Fun City. Maybe Brock Vandagriff is the next Will Levis. But he’ll have to prove it quickly, starting with week two against South Carolina.
ESPN FPI: 6.0-6.0
PFF: 7.1-5.9
WDRB Consensus: 7-5.
LOUISVILLE
Tyler Greever: 9-3 … I can't believe I am writing this going into the second year of the Jeff Brohm Era. But I have more questions about the offense than the defense, specifically surrounding the playmaking pieces, although I like the tight ends a lot. The Cardinals have a legitimate chance to have one of the best defenses in the country and that isn't exaggerating. Ultimately, this is going to boil down to how good Tyler Shough's good is, and can the guys up front keep him upright, while others step up to make plays.
Tom Lane: 8-4…Cards need early wins as the back-end of the schedule gets tougher and road heavy.
Eric Crawford: 8-4 … I’m probably on the optimistic side. I do expect Louisville to win at least one game it is not expected to win — as Brohm has a habit of doing. But it could well lose one it is not expected to lose, which would pose a problem for my projection.
Rick Bozich: 8-4 … Mid-season home games against Georgia Tech, SMU and Miami will tell the tale of this season. The Tech game jumped in degree of difficulty after the Yellow Jackets’ performance against Florida State. SMU struggled with Nevada but the Mustangs have a dynamic passing attack. U of L beat Miami (and Georgia Tech) last season but the Hurricanes upgrade at quarterback and running back to become a trendy pick to win the Atlantic Coast Conference. While I expect Tyler Shough to out-perform Jack Plummer at quarterback, I believe people are under-estimating how challenging it will be to replace Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo at running back. And the Cards’ schedule is several notches more difficult than last season.
ESPN FPI: 7.8-4.4
PFF: 7.0-5.0.
WDRB Consensus: 8.3-3.7.
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