LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — Kenny Payne has not stacked enough victories to be assured a third season as the University of Louisville men’s basketball coach.
The howling from U of L fans and critics remains fierce, relentless and understandable. Suffering 47 losses in 59 games set off alarms that got louder when the Cardinals were blitzed by Notre Dame at home Wednesday night.
But that does not mean Payne has surrendered.
He has not. Actually, he has taken his recruiting pitch up a notch.
There is path forward to Year 3 on his six-year contract — if the administration stands behind him and Payne makes several changes, including his staff of assistants and support personnel.
Another motivated group of Louisville fans who support Payne are working to strengthen the program’s pitch in Name/Image/Likeness, the monetary fuel to modern recruiting.
Payne has the attention of two Top 20 recruits — forward Karter Knox and wing Joson Sanon — who are reportedly strongly considering the Cardinals.
The recruiting grapevine says they are primed to commit to the Cardinals if they and their parents are assured that Payne will be their coach next season.
Knox, ranked 19th in the Class of 2024, is a small forward, listed at 6 feet 5 inches and 205 pounds. He’s the younger brother of NBA forward Kevin Knox, a player Payne recruited to Kentucky in 2017. Payne’s relationship with Knox’s parents, Michelle and Kevin, has been solid for years. Mom and Dad visited U of L with their son before Christmas.
Knox has been considered a lean to Louisville over UK for weeks. Sanon’s interest in the Cardinals escalated this week after his parents made an unofficial visit to Louisville’s basketball facilities and campus Thursday.
Listed at 6 feet, 5 inches and 188 pounds, Sanon plays on the perimeter for Vermont Academy in Saxtons River, Vt. Sanon is ranked the No. 12 prospect in the Class of 2025, but he is considering reclassifying to the 2024 class.
Louisville made the cut of his final 10 schools — and his interest in the Cards reportedly intensified after his parents visited. It won’t be an easy get, considering UK, Arizona, UConn and Kansas are also in the Top 10 but getting Sanon’s parents to Louisville strengthened U of L’s position.
Two other intriguing recruits competing in France are also strongly considering the Cardinals as is a center from the NBA Academy Africa, which sent sophomore Emmanuel Okorafor to U of L last season.
The word is that Payne flew to the Detroit area to watch a top Class of 2025 recruit Friday night — a point guard who would not play for the Cards for two seasons.
That’s not the schedule of a coach who has surrendered.
Blend three or more recruits and transfer portal additions to a roster that could easily feature every important player on the current roster for the 2024-25 season. Forward J.J. Traynor is expected to return from shoulder surgery. The Cards’ overall talent level would jump to the upper level of the Atlantic Coast Conference next season.
You win with veteran teams in college basketball these days. As Payne has said repeatedly, the Cards rank 310th in Division I experience at Ken Pomeroy’s analytics website. U of L typically starts one junior, three sophomores and a freshman. Sometimes two freshmen.
Yes, the Notre Dame game was awful. Pick a word worse than awful if you like. Notre Dame, for the record, was less experienced than U of L and won by 22.
But Louisville did win back-to-back home games against Florida State and Georgia Tech before delivering that dud against the Irish. After they visit Duke Wednesday, the Cards will finish with three winnable home games.
The Cards’ offensive and defensive efficiency has improved from the woeful performance of last season. But there’s a gap between the defense Louisville plays and the defense delivered by winning programs. If Payne is brought back, upgrading the defense is Job One, Job Two and Job Three.
It’s a tiny path to glory when nine ACC opponents have hung 80 or more points on you. The Cardinals need a major upgrade to the basic fiber of their defense — in every area.
More ball pressure. More willingness to grind for the entire 30 seconds of the shot clock. More hands in the passing lanes. More refusal to surrender offensive rebounds. More proficiency at defending the pick and roll.
More everything.
More experience and talent would help that. But Payne needs to make other changes.
If he is brought back, Payne’s first job won’t be to win more games. His challenge during the spring, summer and fall will be to get more Louisville fans back on board and help the athletic department fill the growing number of empty seats in the KFC Yum! Center.
Running back the same staff won’t move the needle. Payne was encouraged to change his staff last summer but chose to remain loyal to Danny Manning, Nolan Smith and Josh Jamieson.
The Cards are better than last season. But at 8-19 overall and 3-13 in the ACC, they are far from where they need to be.
Getting to where the program needs to be as quickly as possible remains the challenge. We should know the path Louisville plans to take to get there in the next few weeks.
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