LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- In the week leading up to the NFL Draft, Kentucky quarterback Will Levis was the surprise story. Stories and speculation flew that he would be among the top players taken in the NFL Draft, and an anonymous Reddit post that he was telling friends and family that the Carolina Panthers planned to take him No. 1 overall fueled some dramatic betting action.
On draft night, Levis became the kind of surprise story you don’t want to be. He wasn’t taken No. 1 by Carolina. Or No. 2. The Indianapolis Colts passed on him, taking Florida QB Anthony Richardson instead. The Atlanta Falcons opted to take a running back (running back?) with their No. 8 overall pick, and Tennessee went with an offensive lineman at No. 11.
And Levis kept waiting, and waiting. It was painful to watch, with Levis watching a phone that never rang. Headed into Day 2 and Round 2 of the NFL Draft, Levis is still waiting. And whoever posted the wildfire Reddit rumor deleted the account.
“Don’t believe everything you read on the Internet,” Levis told reporters a day before the draft, and herein lies the issue.
The NFL Draft annually exposes the ludicrous nature of a lot of sports (and political and news) coverage in this nation.
Kentucky quarterback Will Levis waits in the green room with girlfriend Gia Duddy at the NFL Draft. It was a long wait. (AP Photo/Doug Benc)
There’s such a thirst for predictive news that nobody really cares about what is actually true. Saying something that could be true often is good enough – and more valuable in the marketplace of engagement. There’s less value on fact than on speculation. And when the speculation is wrong, nobody much cares. Nobody is held accountable. They just kind of smile sheepishly and walk away. And come back to spread the same stuff again, which is devoured by a public more interested in potential than reality.
ESPN Analytics told us that there was a 92% chance that Will Levis would be taken in the top 10 picks. Now, their gurus would tell you that their bases were covered by saying that there was an 8% chance he wouldn’t be.
I would tell you that they greatly misstated the changes, because their predictive “analytics” drive ratings and discussion.
There’s nothing wrong with driving discussion. But when your reporting narrative then is based on that speculation, that’s when the car runs off the road. That’s when the media collectively drops its watermelon.
What now likely looks to be the case is that Levis was not a top-10 prospect at any point. He didn't "slide." Some analysts identified him as a top pick, others echoed it, the hype machine did its thing, and those making the actual draft picks were all too willing to let it do just that, because it suited their purposes.
NFL Draft coverage is based on team "sources," but those sources love to provide misleading information, hoping to influence competitors into a misstep.
That's how Mock Drafts become mocked drafts a day after the reality is revealed.
When it comes to draft coverage, or basketball and football recruiting coverage, the public would be well served to remember: It’s entertainment, it isn’t news.
Earlier Thursday, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson signed the most lucrative contract in NFL history. Before he was draft, Mel Kiper Jr. said he wasn’t an accurate enough passer to be a first-round pick. Todd McShay said he needed to stay in school. Colin Cowherd said he could be another Tim Tebow in NFL terms. Jason Whitlock called him a second- or third-rounder.
He went on to become the youngest quarterback ever to start an NFL game, then NFL Most Valuable Player. Getting it wrong is one thing. Getting it wrong on one of the greatest players of his generation is another thing altogether.
You know the story with Jackson. And Levis should know the story. It’s less about where you’re picked than where you go, the opportunity available, the system that awaits you, and finding a fit.
But we’ll all remember the images of Levis fidgeting in his seat, flanked by his girlfriend and family, his stock falling on the screen of the phone he kept checking. It was a different kind of “L’s down” kind of night.
But it wasn't his fault. And his stock wasn't really "falling." It was just reported to be too high to begin with.
Fortunately for Levis, he’ll have the chance to overcome the craziness of the past several months and make his most important reply on the football field. Check Tom Brady's draft position. Or Aaron Rogers', or Warren Sapp's.
Media analysts aren’t the only ones who can get it wrong on draft night. Every year, NFL teams whiff.
Whether they are whiffing on Levis remains to be seen.
What should be settled after the NFL Draft’s yearly reminder is this: The experts often are wrong, and just as often they aren’t experts at all. Let the buyer beware.
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