LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- This is where we're at with the University of Kentucky football program:
You tell somebody you're picking the Wildcats to win eight of their dozen regular season games, and the reaction is a grimace. A furrowed brow. A shake of the head.
This a fan base that wants more. They want what Southeastern Conference Network analyst Chris Doering predicted: an 11-1 season. They want what ESPN analyst Desmond Howard suggested: that Kentucky will be a dark-horse contender for a spot in the national playoffs.
They want more than their current place as a consensus preseason Top-25 team. They want a spot in the consensus top 10.
Here is what the WDRB Sports staff forecasts for the Wildcats:
The Question: Is Kentucky ready to take the next step?
That depends upon how you define the next step.
Is it defeating Georgia and winning the SEC East? The Wildcats have never won the SEC East. They have lost 12 straight and 14 of the last 15 to the Bulldogs.
Numbers don't lie. Georgia won the national title last season. They're a consensus pick to make the national playoffs again. Every Kirby Smart recruiting class is a top-five recruiting class — or better.
So overtaking Georgia should not be defined as the next step for Kentucky football.
Winning 10 games and finishing second in back-to-back seasons should be defined as the next step. Old-fashioned consistency. Kentucky has never won 10 games and finished second in the SEC East in consecutive seasons.
Check those two boxes, plus the box of winning a fifth consecutive bowl game, a fourth consecutive game over Louisville, a seventh win in eight games against Missouri and an eighth win in nine games against South Carolina.
That would be a substantial next step.
The Answer: Yes, Kentucky can do those things.
There are eight home games, all four outside the SEC. The Wildcats will be favored in every one of them.
Their first two SEC games are on the road: first Florida a week from Saturday and then Ole Miss on Oct. 1.
The Gators are starting a rebuild under new coach Billy Napier and depending upon Anthony Richardson, a quarterback with a 59% completion percentage as well as nearly as many interceptions (five) as touchdowns (six). Ole Miss lost 10 starters, including top quarterback Matt Corral. There are worst places to play in the SEC. Missouri gives UK a third winnable road games.
Playing an ambitious South Carolina program at home and Tennessee on the road will be the defining games this season.
The Dependables: Will Levis remains one SEC's top quarterbacks, especially if he can cut down on his 13 interceptions. Chris Rodriguez is one of the SEC's top backs, whenever he returns from suspension. Tayvion Robinson should emerge at receiver. The offensive line has not been a worry for years. DeAndre Square and JJ Weaver should center the defense.
The Rising Star: Freshman Dane Key enrolled early and has already ascended into a top spot on the depth chart at wide receiver. He has size (6 feet, 3 inches) and speed but would benefit from adding a few pounds to his 193-pound frame.
The Tidbits: Mark Stoops will tie Bear Bryant as the program's all-time winningest coach (60) if the Wildcats defeat Miami (Ohio) Saturday night. Starting his 10th season, Stoops ranks second to Alabama's Nick Saban (16 years) in longevity in the SEC and No. 11 in the nation. After a 12-26 start, Stoops is 47-27, a winning percentage of .635 over his last 74 games. The Wildcats have won 16 straight nonconference games, the longest streak among FBS programs.
The Schedule: The Wildcats schedule did not rank among the 10 most difficult in the nation, according to computer metrics at Sports Illustrated or ESPN. They'll get all four non-league games at home, finishing the season with a visit from Louisville Nov. 26. after hosting No. 3 Georgia at Kroger Field on Nov. 19. They have an off week before visiting Tennessee on Oct. 29.
Their two crossover games against SEC West opponents are Ole Miss and Miss State. The Rebels were picked to finish fourth in the West at SEC Media Days, while the Bulldogs were picked sixth, ahead of Auburn.
The Predictions: The consensus forecast from the WDRB Sports staff is 8.8 wins against 3.2 defeats.
- John Lewis: 10-2
- Is there a scenario where UK could be 10-0 heading into the Nov. 19 showdown with Georgia in Lexington? Yes. How does that happen? The receiving corps finds a way to fill the void left by Wan'Dale Robinson's departure, and the defense continues to be one of the best rushing defenses in the league.
- Tom Lane: 8-4
- The Cats have a pretty user-friendly schedule with eight home games. Mark Stoops continues to build depth as Kentucky again battles for second place in the East behind Georgia.
- Griffin Gonzalez: 9-3
- It's going to be a fun year in Lexington. If QB Will Levis remains healthy and the defense can hold its own, I see Kentucky making the most of a lighter nonconference schedule before heading into the beast of the SEC. Ole Miss will be an extremely tough road environment alongside a rebuilt Tennessee that will give the Wildcats trouble on the road. Georgia will come to town, and it may be closer than year's past, but the Dawgs don't lose to teams not named Alabama. Kentucky will win all but those three and should cruise a major bowl game.
- Eric Crawford: 9-3
- The Cats are capable of winning 11, but I'm not quite sure about their consistency.
- Rick Bozich: 8-4
- The Wildcats were 5-1 in games decided by seven points or less last season. They were 3-1 in games decided by one score when they won 10 games in 2018. Can they keep it up? The return of Levis, Rodriguez, several top offensive linemen and the linebacking crew is encouraging. But Wan'Dale Robinson will be difficult to replace, especially with Josh Ali (the No. 2 receiver last season) also gone. The schedule is favorable. But teams like South Carolina, Missouri and Louisville should all be better than last season.
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