Did you know Kentuckiana has a fall fire season? We do! It technically runs October 1 - December 15. The University of Kentucky Department of Forestry and National Resources shares, "with very warm temperatures, very low humidity, a partial fall leaf drop, and normally a shortage of rainfall, conditions are very conducive for forest fires" this time of year.

This year we started fire season in a rain deficit, meaning we are drier than normal. In fact our area is still in Moderate Drought, a level where we have been for several weeks. That means if a fire does start, it would be even more likely to spread because dry materials burn easier than wet ones.

Wind also plays a role in fire weather forecasting because it can determine movement and spread of the fire. On days where the weather has created an increased risk of fire danger, we are looking at a combination of how dry we've been lately, current humidity levels (or how dry the air is now), and wind speed and direction. The National Weather Service has two products they might issue related to fire danger - a Fire Weather Watch and a Red Flag Warning. Here's how they describe each: 

Fire Weather Watches are used to alert users of the possible development of a Red Flag event within the next three days. A Red Flag event is defined as an event where ten-hour fuel stick moisture must be 8% or less, along with afternoon relative humidity levels 25% or below, and 20-foot winds are expected to exceed 15 mph.  All three requirements must be met for at least a couple hours.

Red Flag Warnings are issued to warn an impending or ongoing Red Flag event, when rapid fire spread is likely due to favorable weather conditions. A Red Flag event is defined as an event where ten-hour fuel stick moisture must be 8% or less, along with afternoon relative humidity levels 25% or below, and 20-foot winds are expected to exceed 15 mph.  All three requirements must be met for at least a couple hours.

The National Weather Service office in Louisville also issues a daily Fire Weather Planning Forecast. During fire weather season, they issue two of those each day (at 5 AM and 4 PM) instead of just one. Spring fire weather season in our area is February 15 - April 30. Click here to see Kentucky's burn laws or here to see Indiana's.