LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- I'm sure somebody had a reason why Rich Strike could win the Kentucky Derby two years ago. They just failed to let me in on the secret.
I'm sure that sharper handicappers than me had legitimate reasons to doubt the last five Derby favorites -- long before they all failed to win the roses.
Now, after swimming through a stack of past performance charts, speed figures and race replays, I settled on reasons all 20 Derby contenders can and cannot win the race over a mile-and-a-quarter late Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs.
You make the call. You might be right. But I doubt it.
1. Dornoch, 20-1
Why He Can Win: Full brother to Mage, who raced into the Derby winner's circle last year. Staying in the same barn as Mage. Until the Blue Grass, he'd won three straight.
Why He Can't Win: Seth Curry is a full brother to Steph. Seth has no rings. Passed one horse in the final 3/8th of the Blue Grass and race conditions will require him run an extra quarter-mile Saturday. That final quarter gets lonely.
2. Sierra Leone 6-5
Why He Can Win: In four starts, he's won three times over three different tracks. Won in the slop in New Orleans and made up more than six lengths to pass six horses in the stretch to win the Blue Grass Stakes.
Why He Can't Win: In his last three races, he's been 10th, ninth and ninth after the opening half mile — in fields of 10, 12 and 10. Starting this close to the rail, he's likely to be 18th or worse at the half-mile pole Saturday. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione will need the ride of his life — and, in six Derby starts, Gaffalione has finished 14th or worse five times with a career best of seventh.
3. Mystik Dan, 20-1
Why He Can Win: That 101 Beyer speed figure he earned in the Southwest Stakes sparkles. Broke his maiden at Churchill Downs. Trainer Kenny McPeek has a Preakness win and remains dogged to crack the Derby code.
Why He Can't Win: In his only race at a mile-and-an-eighth, he went backwards, fading from 3 1/2 to 6 1/4 lengths back in the Arkansas Derby stretch.
4. Catching Freedom, 8-1
Why He Can Win: Flavien Prat rides. Have you seen his Derby record? Six starts, one win, one second, three thirds. His Beyer Speed figure has increased by five in his last four races, topping at 97 when he won the Louisiana Derby.
Why He Can't Win: He's never won back-to-back races. Was outrun in the stretch by Sierra Leone the only time he raced him. Might catch freedom, won't catch the best 3-year-olds.
5. Catalytic, 30-1
Why He Can Win: Finished second in Florida Derby.
Why He Can't Win: Finished 13 1/2 lengths behind Fierceness in Florida Derby.
6. Just Steel, 20-1
Why He Can Win: Ran a 95 Beyer while finishing second to Muth in Arkansas Derby. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who has four Derby wins.
Why He Can't Win: 0-for-his-last-4 and Lukas is working on an 0-for-15 Derby run.
7. Honor Marie, 20-1
Why He Can Win: Has a win a Churchill Downs. Closed with gusto in Louisiana Derby.
Why He Can't Win: That win was Nov. 25. Two trips to the starting gate, no trips to the winner's circle as a 3-year-old.
8. Just a Touch, 10-1
Why He Can Win: Mage won from the 8 hole last year. His sire, Justify, was the last Triple Crown winner. First or second in all three of his races. Beyer numbers keep going up. He's the surprise pick of track announcer Travis Stone.
Why He Can't Win: Didn't race at 2. Only win was a maiden.
9. T O Password 30-1
Why He Can Win: Unbeaten, untied, unscored upon.
Why He Can't Win: Japanese-based horses are 0-for-6 in the Derby.
10. Forever Young 10-1
Why He Can Win: Five starts. Five wins. Nobody else in the field can match that.
Why He Can't Win: All of his races have been in Japan or the Middle East. The record of horses who raced exclusively on foreign soil before the Derby is 14 starts: no wins, no second, no thirds. Seems significant.
11. Track Phantom 20-1
Why He Can Win: Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. Beyer speed figure has never gone in reverse. Broke his maiden at Churchill Downs.
Why He Can't Win: Got outrun in the stretch in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, shorter races than the Derby. Have I mentioned that final quarter-mile is a doozy.
12. West Saratoga 50-1
Why He Can Win: Disney would make a movie if a colt that sold for $11,000 wins for a Bahamian-born trainer who has been beating cancer for six years.
Why He Can't Win: Even Disney has major concerns about a colt who lost his last four starts by a combined 34 lengths.
13. Endlessly 30-1
Why He Can Win: I really need to do more research.
Why He Can't Win: Trainer Mike McCarthy says it's not his idea to run. It's the owner's. When the trainer can tell you why ...
14. Domestic Product 30-1
Why He Can Win: He and Hades are the last two horses to beat Fierceness (in the Holy Bull) — and Hades isn't here.
Why He Can't Win: Doesn't have a Beyer figure higher than 87 and hasn't raced since March 9.
15. Grand Mo the First, 50-1
Why He Can Win: Well ... ummm ... errrr ... cough. Remind me to ask the owner.
Why He Can't Win: His last four finishes: Third. Third. Third. Third.
16. Fierceness 6-1
Why He Can Win: His best two Beyer speed figures (105 & 110) are the best in the field. Won the Florida Derby by a record 13 1/2 lengths. Jockey John Velasquez has won three of the last 13 Derbies — and that's not counting the one Medina Spirit lost on a disqualification three years ago.
Why He Can't Win: Imagine this as an SAT question — complete the pattern: Win, lose, win, lose, win...
17. Stronghold 20-1
Why He Can Win: Beat Imagination, one of Bob Baffert's top 3-year-olds, to win the Santa Anita Derby.
Why He Can't Win: His best Beyer speed figure is 89. Thirteen Derby starters have run better Beyers than 89.
18. Resilience 20-1
Why He Can Win: Ran his best race while winning the Wood Memorial. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott.
Why He Can't Win: Needed four starts to break his maiden. John Velasquez rode him in the Wood and two prior starts — and Velasquez wisely picked Fierceness for his Derby mount.
19. Society Man 50-1
Why He Can Win: Finally broke his maiden March 9, on his fourth try. Never raced outside New York.
Why He Can't Win: His best Beyer (87) isn't as good as Stronghold's.
20 Epic Ride, 50-1
Why He Can Win: Rich Strike was 80-1, not 50-1, when he won from the 20 post as a late entry two years ago. There is video evidence.
Why He Can't Win: Are you telling me that you weren't dazzled by that third-place finish in the Blue Grass that put him in position to make the field Tuesday when Encino scratched?
Copyright 2024 WDRB Media. All Rights Reserved.
