Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers
NEW YORK (AP) — Calls are increasing inside Congress for investigations into the prediction market platform Polymarket. This comes after The Associated Press reported that at least 50 new Polymarket accounts placed substantial bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire hours before President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire on social media. These accounts had never bet on Polymarket before and this isn't the first time such well-timed bets have occurred. Researchers at Harvard University estimate that $143 million in profits on Polymarket may have been made by individuals with insider information. Rep. Ritchie Torres has demanded that regulators review such trades, raising concerns about potential market abuse.
Prediction markets are back in the spotlight, this time because of the war in Iran
Prediction markets let people wager on anything from a basketball game to the outcome of a presidential election — and recently, even the fate of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran. Shortly ahead of a fragile ceasefire agreement earlier this week, a new group of accounts on prediction market platform Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed trades betting on a halt in fighting for April 7. The trades once again put the spotlight on a murky — and growing — world of speculative, 24/7 transactions now filling the internet. The commercial use of prediction markets has skyrocketed in recent years. And because these wagers are categorized differently than traditional forms of gambling, tensions about government oversight have erupted.
US economy grew a sluggish 0.5% in fourth quarter, government says, downgrading previous estimate
WASHINGTON (AP) — The American economy, slowed by last fall’s 43-day government shutdown, grew at a sluggish 0.5% annual pace from October through December, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in downgrade of its previous estimate. U.S. gross domestic product— the nation’s output of goods and services — decelerated in the fourth quarter after registering impressive growth of 4.4% from July through September. The latest number was marked down from the Commerce Department’s previous estimate of 0.7% fourth-quarter growth. Federal government spending and investment fell at a 16.6% annual pace because of the shutdown, lopping 1.16 percentage points off fourth-quarter GDP growth.
Key inflation gauge remains elevated in February before Iran war
WASHINGTON (AP) — A key measure of inflation stayed high in February, before the war in Iran spiked gas prices, a sign that everyday costs were elevated even before the conflict began. Thursday’s report is largely a warm-up for the more important inflation data to be released Friday, when the government will publish the higher-profile consumer price index for March. The Friday report will be the first to reflect the impact of the gas price spike from the Iran war. Economists forecast it will show a big increase of 0.9% just in March from February, and a 3.4% gain from a year earlier.
Travelers face higher costs and fewer flight options as jet fuel prices swing
Air travelers are facing a new reality of higher fees, fewer flights and tough choices about whether a trip is worth the cost. The culprit is volatile oil and jet fuel prices that have been swinging since the war in the Middle East started and fighting near the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global oil shipments. Airlines around the world are responding by trimming schedules and raising fees and fares. Experts say budget carriers and the customers who rely on them will feel the pinch first, but even business travelers and front-cabin passengers won’t escape higher costs. Relief may not come quickly even if oil prices start to drop, experts warn, because airlines can take months to adjust fares while they wait for energy markets to stabilize.
Venezuelan lawmakers approve a sweeping mining bill to lure foreign investors
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuelan lawmakers have approved a bill to regulate mining as the country seeks to attract leery foreign investors to a once-private industry that has long been exploited by criminal groups with ties to the government. It is the latest legislative initiative by acting President Delcy Rodríguez since the self-proclaimed socialist government that has ruled Venezuela for 26 years came under pressure from the Trump administration in January, when the U.S. military deposed then-President Nicolás Maduro. The lengthy bill will now be reviewed by the country’s high court to determine if it is constitutional.
Federal judge finds Pentagon is violating court order to restore access to reporters
WASHINGTON (AP) — A federal judge has ruled that the Defense Department is violating his earlier order to restore access to the Pentagon for reporters. U.S. District Judge Paul Friedman sided with The New York Times earlier this month in deciding that the Pentagon’s new credential policy violated journalists’ constitutional rights to free speech and due process. He sided again with the Times in saying that the Pentagon had tried to evade his ruling by putting in new rules that expel all reporters from the building unless guided by escorts. Friedman had ordered Pentagon officials to reinstate the press credentials of seven Times reporters and stressed that his decision applies to “all regulated parties.”
Live Nation antitrust trial nears end as lawyer for 34 states labels the concerts giant a monopolist
NEW YORK (AP) — A lawyer for states suing Live Nation Entertainment has tried to convince a jury during an antitrust trial's closing arguments that the company and its ticketing arm, Ticketmaster, are monopolizing the industry and driving up concert prices. But a lawyer for Live Nation insisted during his closing Thursday that there is more competition than ever and the company plays fair. The jury is due to start deliberating Friday. The federal government led the civil claims until settling its end of the case several weeks ago, saying it had won important concessions from Live Nation.
IRS touts a 24% increase in tax refunds compared to the previous administration
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration is highlighting a 24% increase in individual tax refunds this season compared with those issued during the previous administration. The average refund is now $3,521, up 11% from last year. The boost comes after Republicans passed legislation last year that includes tax breaks and spending cuts affecting various income brackets. Deductions cover tips, overtime, car loan interest and some benefits for seniors. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the law will add $4.2 trillion to the national debt by 2034. Taxpayers have until April 15 to file taxes or ask for an extension.
US filings for jobless aid jump to 219,00 last week but remain within stable range of past few years
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. applications for unemployment benefits rose last week before Iran, Israel and the U.S. announced a two-week ceasefire deal that injected a degree of optimism into a still-clouded global economic picture. The number of Americans applying for jobless aid for the week ending April 4 jumped by 16,000 to 219,000 from the previous week’s 203,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Filings for unemployment benefits are considered representative of U.S. layoffs and are close to a real-time indicator of the health of the job market. The total number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the previous week ending March 28 fell by 38,000 to 1.79 million, the fewest in nearly two years.
