LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Winning football seasons used to be assumed around the University of Louisville football program.
The Cardinals ran off eight consecutive winning seasons from 2010-17. That followed a stretch of nine-straight winning seasons from 1998-2006.
Life in the Atlantic Coast Conference has been less comforting. From 2001-13, Louisville celebrated five seasons with 11 or more victories. The Cards have yet to win 10 games as an ACC member.
A year ago, Louisville finished 4-7, the program’s second losing season in three years. The Cards have not endured back-to-back losing seasons since 2008-09. The last time U of L football delivered three losing seasons in a four-year period ended in 1987, the earliest days of Howard Schnellenberger.
What are the expectations for Scott Satterfield’s third U of L team after the Cards slipped to 4-7 from 8-5?
Most gambling website put the Cards’ over/under win total at 6 1/2 over the 12-game regular season schedule. VegasInsider has Louisville at the same win total as Kentucky: 7.
Clemson returns to the schedule this season. The Cards are an early 20-point underdog for that one. North Carolina State looks like the second-best team in the Atlantic Division of the ACC, and the game is booked for Raleigh. Louisville has lost its last two to Kentucky by 46 and 32 points. That’s a lot of ground to close.
That leaves nine spots to uncover seven wins. Here is the path to seven.
1. Split Ole Miss/UCF: The Cards open against Ole Miss in Atlanta on Sept. 6. The Central Florida game is a Friday night home game Sept. 17.
The Cards need to win one of those games to get to nine wins, and they’re listed as an eight-point underdog against the Rebels.
Is Ole Miss really eight points better than the Cards?
They’re better at quarterback with Matt Corral, but he’ll be without two quality receivers and his best halfback (Jerrion Ely). The Rebels’ defense ranked last in the SEC last season, giving up an average of 519 yards per game. Plus, Ole Miss lost two of its best defensive players — end Ryder Anderson (Indiana) and linebacker Jaquez Jones (Kentucky) — to the transfer portal.
Ole Miss started slowly last season, losing four of its first five with the only victory by a point over Kentucky.
I’m confident putting that down as a winnable game for the Cards.
UCF has an established quarterback in Dillon Gabriel, but he must adjust to a new scheme with former Auburn coach Gus Malzahn without six of his top seven receivers.
Splitting those games is not an outrageous ask for Louisville.
2. Beat Eastern Kentucky: It’s the only gimme on the Cards’ schedule, tucked between Ole Miss and UCF. If it becomes more difficult than a gimme, forget the rest of this column.
3. Split trips to Florida State/Wake Forest: Louisville needs to be 2-1 before it opens ACC play with back-to-back games at FSU and Wake.
The Seminoles are the most difficult team in the ACC to project because second-year coach Mike Norvell worked the transfer portal like the clearance aisle at Saks Fifth Avenue. FSU’s streak of three consecutive losing seasons is the first by the program since 1977. The turnover from Jimbo Fisher to Willie Taggart to Norvell was reflected in FSU’s recruiting.
The Seminoles are counting on former UCF star McKenzie Milton at quarterback. He threw 25 touchdown passes the last season he played, but that was 2018. He’s been out with a serious leg injury.
ProFootballFocus is bullish on the Demon Deacons, calling Wake above average in passing, receiving and pass coverage. Wake returns 20 starters, including its entire offense. But Louisville beat the Demon Deacons by 24 last season, out-gaining Wake by 102 yards.
4. Sweep Virginia/Boston College: No gimmes here. But these are consecutive home games — Oct. 9 and 23 — with a built-in off week.
Louisville cornerback Kei'Trel Clark (13) was picked as a first-team pre-season all-ACC player by Lindy's Football yearbook. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
Boston College has one of the top three offensive lines in the ACC. The Eagles do not have a dynamic running back to take advantage of their blockers. Quarterback Phil Jurkovec was supposed to be the next great thing at Notre Dame, but Ian Book kept him on the bench, leading to his transfer to Chestnut Hill.
Jurkovec had a solid first-year, completing 61% of his throws with only five interceptions in 273 attempts. He was solid against Louisville, completing 15/19, although he did not have a touchdown pass.
The Cards get Virginia with the Cavaliers coming off a game against Miami. Brennan Armstrong is a solid quarterback who ran for two scores and passed for another in a 31-17 win against the Cards last season. The Cards are 4-0 against Virginia in Cardinal Stadium.
5. Sweep Syracuse/Duke: After winning 10 games in 2018, Dino Babers has won six the last two seasons. PFF ranks all four parts of the Syracuse offense — quarterback, running backs, receivers, line — among the five worst in the ACC. Playing in Cardinal Stadium on Nov. 13, Louisville must win this one.
ProFootballFocus has watched video on every ACC team and determined Duke has the worst collection of quarterbacks, receivers and defensive linemen. PFF also said the Blue Devils lost the four most productive players from the 2020 squad.
If you have to play a conference road game, you want to play it in mid-November at Duke where fans should be in full Waiting to Say Goodbye to Coach K mode. The Cards couldn’t ask for a friendlier ACC crossover division game, even though it’s a short turnaround Thursday-nighter after Syracuse.
There’s your path to 7-5.
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