LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- How many programs do I need to name before you’re convinced that I have identified college football’s 2022 national champion?
One?
Alabama and Nick Saban’s Heisman Trophy train in Tuscaloosa.
Two?
Alabama and Georgia, which identified the next Saban when it hired Kirby Smart from the Crimson Tide’s staff.
Three?
Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State, which is run by Ryan Day, the finest offensive mind in the game.
I am prepared to stop there: Bama. Georgia. OSU.
But I will proceed, because college football does invite four teams to its playoff, doesn’t it?
The fourth would be the Big Three plus Clemson, which is determined to bounce back from the embarrassing misery of a 10-3 season in 2021.
If you forced me to go five deep, the only schools I’m willing to consider are Michigan, Texas A&M and Utah.
Why those three?
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart talks with defensive back Lewis Cine during the first half of the Orange Bowl NCAA College Football Playoff semifinal game against Michigan, Friday, Dec. 31, 2021, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)
They are the only other programs that cracked the preseason top five at five different college football publications: Phil Steele, Athlon Sports, Lindy’s, ProFootball Focus and Pick Six Preview.
College football has become as predictable as a flight delay. They tell you that every game matters, but the fine print tells you that only Brand Names need apply. It’s world of Apple, Google and Facebook.
I listened to part of a Colin Cowherd podcast last week when he said that only 17 of 130 programs have a chance to win the national title in any year.
Cowherd exaggerates. He included Penn State, Baylor, Michigan and Texas A&M.
None of those four programs has appeared in the final game in the Bowl Championship or National Playoff eras, which started in 1998, kids. Don’t look for college football’s version of the Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Baylor Bears. They’re not walking through that door.
I have the numbers.
I checked the winners as well as the championship game participants over the last 20 seasons in seven sports: the NFL, MLB, the NBA, the NHL, men’s college basketball, women’s college basketball and college football.
College football and the NBA (and its Super Teams) can strike the pose as the most predictable sports in the group.
Only 14 teams have filled 40 possible spots.
Only 10 have won the 20 titles.
Women’s college basketball has had fewer programs win its last 20 national championships — just eight, because UConn grabbed nine. (And the Huskies’ dominance seems to be waning.) But 16 programs have made the last 20 final games.
Nobody does parity better than men’s college basketball, where 24 programs have filled the 40 championship game spots. Don’t look for Kansas, Virginia, Duke or Syracuse to do great things in football.
So if you’re wondering why Steele, Lindy’s and Athlon all picked Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson as Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 (in that order) for the 2022 season, I believe there is an answer.
College football has a parity problem.
Here is the sport by sport rundown, with the note that the college basketball titles were actually decided over 21 seasons because the 2020 men’s and women’s tournaments were canceled because of COVID-19. (And I included men’s basketball tournament appearances by Louisville and Memphis that were later vacated by the NCAA.)
NFL
- Championship game participants: 20 teams
- Rams; Bengals; Bucs; Chiefs; 49ers; Pats; Eagles; Falcons; Broncos; Panthers; Seahawks; Ravens; Giants; Packers; Steelers; Saints; Colts; Cardinals; Bears and Raiders
- Champions: 13 teams
- Rams; Bucs; Chiefs; Pats; Eagles; Broncos; Seahawks; Ravens; Giants; Packers; Steelers; Saints and Colts
- Multiple Champions: 4 teams
- Bucs, Pats, Giants and Steelers
Major League Baseball
- Championship game participants: 20 teams
- Braves; Astros; Dodgers; Rays; Nats; Red Sox; Cubs; Indians; Royals; Mets; Giants; Cardinals; Tigers; Rangers; Yankees; Phillies; Rockies; White Sox; Marlins and Angels
- Champions: 14 teams
- Braves; Astros; Dodgers; Nats; Red Sox; Cubs; Royals; Giants; Cardinals; Yankees; Phillies; White Sox; Marlins and Angels
- Multiple Champions: 3 teams
- Red Sox, Giants and Cardinals
NBA
- Championship game participants: 14 teams
- Warriors; Celtics; Bucks; Suns; Lakers; Heat; Raptors; Cavaliers; Spurs; Thunder; Mavericks; Magic; Pistons and Nets
- Champions: 10 teams
- Warriors; Celtics; Bucks; Lakers; Heat; Raptors; Cavaliers; Spurs; Mavericks and Pistons
- Multiple Champions: 4 teams
- Warriors, Lakers, Heat and Spurs
NHL
- Championship game participants: 23 teams
- Avalanche; Lightning; Canadiens; Stars; Blues; Bruins; Capitals; Golden Knights; Penguins; Predators; Sharks; Blackhawks; Kings; Rangers; Devils; Canucks; Flyers; Red Wings; Ducks; Senators; Flames; Hurricanes and Oilers
- Champions: 12 teams
- Avalanche; Lightning; Blues; Bruins; Capitals; Penguins; Blackhawks; Kings; Devils; Red Wings; Ducks and Hurricanes
- Multiple Champions: 5 teams
- Lightning; Penguins: Blackhawks; Kings and Red Wings
NCAA Men’s Basketball
- Championship game participants: 24 teams
- Kansas; North Carolina; Baylor; Gonzaga; Virginia; Texas Tech; Villanova; Michigan; Duke; Wisconsin; UConn; Kentucky; Louisville; Butler, Michigan State; Memphis; Florida; Ohio State; UCLA; Illinois; Georgia Tech; Syracuse; Maryland and Indiana
- Champions: 12 teams
- Kansas; North Carolina; Baylor; Virginia; Villanova; Duke, UConn; Kentucky; Louisville; Florida; Syracuse and Maryland
- Multiple Champions: 6 teams
- Kansas; North Carolina; Villanova; Duke; UConn and Florida
NCAA Women’s Basketball
- Championship game participants: 16 teams
- South Carolina; UConn; Stanford; Arizona; Baylor; Notre Dame; Mississippi State; Syracuse; Louisville; Texas A&M; Tennessee; Rutgers; Maryland; Duke; Michigan State and Oklahoma
- Champions: 8 teams
- South Carolina; UConn; Stanford; Baylor; Notre Dame; Texas A&M; Tennessee and Maryland
- Multiple Champions: 4 teams
- South Carolina, UConn, Baylor and Tennessee
College Football
- Championship game participants: 14 teams
- Georgia; Alabama; Ohio State; LSU; Clemson; Oregon; Florida State; Auburn; Notre Dame; Texas; Florida; Oklahoma; USC and Miami
- Champions: 10 teams
- Georgia; Alabama; Ohio State; LSU; Clemson; Florida State; Auburn; Texas; USC and Miami
- Multiple Champions: 5 teams
- Alabama; Ohio State; LSU; Clemson and Florida
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