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BOZICH | Computer formulas say Louisville is Top 25 team; Can Cards still show it?

  • Updated
  • 3 min to read
Jeff Brohm

Louisville coach Jeff Brohm talks to his offensive players during a loss at Notre Dame.

 ERIC CRAWFORD

LOUISVILLE, KY. (WDRB) -- ESPN's College Football Power Index ranks coach Jeff Brohm's University of Louisville football team No. 17 in America — even though the Cards are 5-3, parked in sixth place in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

I found the numbers from five of the six computer formulas that were used in the old Bowl Championship Series, the system that was used to pick the national champion before the playoff system launched in 2014.

One formula, Billingsley, ranks Louisville No. 24. Four others — Massey, Colley Matrix, Sagarin and Peter Wolfe — have the Cards between No. 27 and No. 31. That's not the Top 25, but it's likely a win away.

Kenneth Massey, a mathematics professor, collects the results from 61 different ratings and displays them at this web site.

Looking at the average results from those 61 ratings, Louisville is ranked No. 22, ahead of Washington State, Missouri, Illinois and other teams ahead of the Cards in the human polls.

But the vibe around this Louisville team is not the usual vibe around a Top 25 team.

Because they have lost three games, including a pair at home, by seven points. Because they had to scramble from a 20-deficit to win at Boston College last Friday night.

Because there have been consistent defensive breakdowns that Brohm is still trying to fix. Because the Cardinals do not have a signature win.

The wise guys don't think they will get one this weekend. The Cards will travel to Clemson on Saturday night as an 11-point underdog.

What does Louisville need to do to push back on the criticism and into the Top 25, where the Cardinals hung out most of last season?

"We've identified a lot of the issues and we've tried to work on them," Brohm said Monday.

"I'm not saying we've made a ton of progress. But we've made some."

Brohm said the offense needs to eliminate turnovers and get better converting short yardage situation. Special teams have created some advantages but has been hurt by penalties.

The defense remains a work in progress. The Cards have allowed about 42 yards and 3.3 more per game than they did last season, ranking 10th in the 17-team ACC in scoring and total defense.

"In order to win at a high level those things have to be hitting on all cylinders, offense, defense, special teams," Brohm said.

"I just think all three segments have to be clicking in order to compete against really good teams. We had some success doing that last year.

"This year, it's been a little more to struggle. We got to find ways to fix it and make sure we're more efficient all three segments."

Most of the criticism this season has surrounded the defense. In August the talk was that the U of L defense was outplaying the offense. The Cards featured a pair of first team all-conference players in defensive lineman Ashton Gillotte and cornerback Quincy Riley.

Defensive coordinator Ron English was convinced that Louisville had enough talent and experience in his group to dial into more complicated play calls.

It has not worked. Brohm has brought English down from the press box to the sidelines to improve communication. He's ordered a simplification of what Louisville is trying to achieve on defense.

"Sometimes the calls are in there but the processing of the calls are not as quick as they need to be," English said.

"So to me, that's a function of the call itself. You have to give them calls that function that they can process quickly.

"We have a bunch of veteran guys that we thought would have a little higher aptitude than they have. So we have had to be less ambitious in what we are asking them to do.

"Sometimes that can show up in practice, where they can execute all those calls, but in the heat of battles is something different.

"And so we have to come to grips with that. As aggressive and innovative as we would like to be, it's not always the right time for that particular unit."

Louisville better be as sound as they have been all season Saturday night. Clemson ranks second in the ACC in scoring and total offense, averaging 42 points and 490 yards per game. 

After losing their season opener to Georgia, the Tigers have won their last six by an average of 27.3 points. Clemson is absolutely in the discussion to win the ACC title and earn a spot in the 12-team national playoff.

"They have a chance to be as good as anybody," Brohm said. "We will have our hands full, going to play a team that's hot."

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