LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- The numbers around the University of Louisville men’s basketball team are cold and cruel. This is what they say:
The probability of the Cardinals winning five games and the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament in Brooklyn this week is one-tenth of a percent (according to Ken Pomeroy’s computer formula).
“We all have a belief right now that we can do what everybody else probably thinks is impossible,” U of L guard Jarrod West said.
Not impossible. But certainly in the impossible area code.
Pomeroy puts the Cards’ chances at 0.10%, slightly worse than Florida State’s 0.6% or Clemson’s 1.1% but better than four other ACC teams.
If they played the tournament 1,000 times, the Cards would win it ... once.
The video from the 2021 conference tournaments showed that Georgetown delivered four straight shockers to win the Big East and Oregon State pulled off three upsets in the Pac-12 Tournament before the Beavers also delivered three more upsets in the NCAA Tournament.
Don’t forget the real story there: Georgetown and Oregon State combined to steal NCAA Tournament bids. That pushed Louisville out of the field and led to the mess that has unfolded around the program the last year.
“I just told our guys that at some point, those guys — Georgetown and Oregon State both going into their conference tournaments — they had to look at each other and say, ‘You know what, we can get this thing,’" U of L interim head coach Mike Pegues said.
“We play our game and we play together, we compete and get after it the way that we know we can. We play our game and we play together, we compete and after it the way that we know we can get it.
“And I'm sure that started before they got on the bus. I'm positive that it only escalated after they got that first win.”
Mike Pegues said his team took too many bad shots after clawing back to take a one-point lead at Notre Dame.
That first win.
Two other computer formulas do not like the Cardinals’ chance of getting that first win in their opening game against Georgia Tech at 7 p.m. Tuesday in the Barclays Center.
One, Bart Torvik, likes the Yellow Jackets, 68-67.
Another, Erik Haslem, likes Georgia Tech, 67.57 to 67.01.
The video from the first time the teams played this season shows that Louisville was three points better. The Cardinals celebrated a 67-64 victory, improving to 9-4 overall and 3-0 in the ACC.
Those were the days. The Cards head to Brooklyn 12-18, trying to avoid equaling the program’s worst season since 2001. Tech is 12-19, a stumble that began with a season-opening loss to Miami (Ohio).
The video also shows that since Feb. 1, Georgia Tech has been the better team. The Yellow Jackets have won three of their last 11, handling Clemson, Pittsburgh and Boston College.
During the same period, Louisville is 1-8, beating only Clemson.
Pegues liked the way his team played against Virginia last Saturday, primarily in the second half, when the Cardinals outscored the Cavaliers, 44-35.
Pegues said he will start the same group — Sydney Curry, Malik Williams, Noah Locke, Mason Faulkner and Jarrod West — against Tech.
“Obviously, by now, they're playing for more than anybody else in regards to being seniors and you know, this potentially being their last game,” Pegues said.
“So I intend on going with that lineup tomorrow and seeing if those guys can get us off to another good start.”
Williams, Locke and West started and scored 36 points in the game in Atlanta.
Curry played one minute without scoring or grabbing a rebound. He has averaged 23.3 points in the last three U of L games. Faulkner did not see the floor.
Matt Cross and Dre Davis both had 13 points in that Louisville victory. Cross has scored five points in U of L’s last eight games. Davis has scored 10 in the last three.
Different team.
Different season.
“You only get an opportunity to play an ACC tournament so many times in your life and this is one of them, so hopefully we can take full advantage of it,” Pegues said.
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