Sonny Leon

Jockey Sonny Leon aboard Rich Strike after winning the Kentucky Derby (Eric Crawford photo)

 ERIC CRAWFORD

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- How many times does the best horse win the Kentucky Derby?

"You really don't want to know," trainer Danny Gargan said.

Actually, I do. I really do want to know.

I'm committed to writing 950 words about this crazy concept that if college basketball was horse racing, Oakland or Grambling could win the NCAA Tournament.

I've noticed a trend that should make trainers of the top contenders in Derby 150 howl: Neither of the last two Kentucky Derby winners won another race. Rich Strike (2022) and Mage (last year) went a combined 0-9 after leaving Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

I kept looking. It's actually happened five times in the last eight years. Never mind paying $250,000 to breed to Gun Runner. The Kentucky Derby winner is likely to be sired by My Lucky Day out of the mare Perfect Trip.

"Most of the time, the best horse doesn't win the Kentucky Derby," said Bernie Hettel, the former executive director and chief steward of the Kentucky Racing Commission. "Your horse can train right. He can look right. You can make the best plans. And then your horse just doesn't get it done in the Derby, and you're left wondering, 'How did that happen?'"

How did that happen? Seems like another reasonable question to ask.

Win the Derby. Never win again. Add Country House (2019), Always Dreaming (2017) and Nyquist (2016) to the list.

Kentucky Derby Mage Javier Castellano

Jockey Javier Castellano throws a handful of roses into the air after winning Kentucky Derby 149.

Last year's 3-year-old champion, Arcangelo, didn't run in the Derby.

In 2022, Epicenter got chased down and overtaken in the stretch by the irrepressible and unknown Rich Strike, who snuck along the rail.

Rich Strike went 0-6 after the Derby.

Epicenter finished second in the Preakness before winning the Jim Dandy and Travers. That made him the 3-year-old champion, putting him a list with Curlin, Point Given, Holy Bull and AP Indy as champion horses who did not win the Derby.

Let's try this again, this time with a Hall of Fame trainer who won the Derby five years ago with Country House after a disqualification.

How many times does the best horse win the Kentucky Derby?

"We've had some horses that had the perfect trip and won the Derby and maybe they weren't the best horse," trainer Bill Mott said.

So I'll ask one final time, this time to a guy who will try to soar into the Kentucky Derby winner's circle a fifth time Saturday.

How many times does the best horse win the Kentucky Derby?

"Let me tell you this story," said trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who will saddle Just Steel, his 50th Derby horse.

"The horse that surprised the hell out of me was Grindstone. We had five in that year (1996).

"I remember saddling them, going up and down, checking everything and looking at him, and he was just kind of drooping in the stall.

"And I thought, 'Man, I hope he shows up.' "

Show up?

Grindstone showed out. Passing a dozen horses in the final half mile, Grindstone stuck a nose in front of Cavonnier at the wire.

"I didn't feel like I had him where he should be, yet he ran terrific," Lukas said.

Here is the rest of the story: Grindstone never won again, one of 11 Derby winners who never won again since 1996. In fact, he did not race again, sent into retirement and then a long breeding career because of a bone chip.

Injuries have certainly been near the top of the reasons that the Derby was the last race won by nine of the last 20 Derby champions.

Barbaro was injured in the 2006 Preakness. Country House had ligament damage and then infections that directed him toward the breeding shed.

Super Saver (2010) gave Todd Pletcher his first Derby win in 2010 and then finished eighth in the Preakness, fourth in the Haskell and 10th in the Travers.

Never raced again.

Now it's happened in back-to-back years as well as five times in the last eight. It's a different dynamic. How different?

Well, starting with Foolish Pleasure in 1975 and stretching through 1993 with Sea Hero, 19 consecutive Derby winners all won at least one more race. In fact, as a group, those 19 horses averaged nearly 4.5 wins.

Give most of the credit to 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed, who won 10 more races and 1979 Derby winner Spectacular Bid, who won a spectacular 13 times in 15 more starts — finishing second and third the other two times that he races. The best horses were not raced to the breeding shed then.

Go For Gin ended that streak in 1994. He raced nine more times after the Derby, ringing up four seconds and a pair of thirds. Hall of Famer Nick Zito trained that colt, with Gargan one of his assistants.

"I'd say luck is at least 15-20% of it," Gargan said.

Anybody else?

"Luck is probably a little more (of a factor than other races), because you're multiplying the number of horses that you're running against," Mott said.

"Normally, in a race going that distance, you'd have a 10-horse field. Now you have a 20-horse field, so you're increasing (the luck factor) times two."

Lukas is 88 and has been bringing horses to this race since he finished third with Partez in 1981. I respect his record and resolve immensely and will give Lukas the last word.

"These horses have never been in a 20-horse field," Lukas said. "A lot of the riders have never ridden in a 20-horse field.

"None of the horses have ever raced a mile-and-a-quarter, so you've got some elements here that can really mess things up. You can imagine what would happen in the Indy 500 if they doubled the number of cars.

"I don't know if it's luck or it's fate. It's just something we'll just have to show up and enjoy."

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