Reed Sheppard and John Calipari

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- In a season when John Calipari's University of Kentucky men's basketball team teased it had to potential to reach the Final Four, the Wildcats no longer look like one of the four best teams in the Southeastern Conference.

With half the SEC schedule played, the Wildcats (15-6, 5-4) sit in fifth place even though Ken Pomeroy's analytics site calculated UK has played the fifth-easiest schedule.

Trips to Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State and Tennessee await the Wildcats, who visit Vanderbilt on Tuesday night. UK trails Alabama by three games and Tennessee, South Carolina and Auburn by two (in the loss column).

Pomeroy's site suggests things will get worse, not better, for Calipari's squad. This is his projected SEC finish:

  1. Alabama 14-4
  2. Auburn 14-4
  3. Tennessee 14-4
  4. South Carolina 12-6
  5. Kentucky 10-8
  6. Florida 10-8

Maybe another analytics formula — Bart Torvik's — disagrees?

Nope.

  1. Alabama 14-4
  2. Tennessee 14-4
  3. Auburn 14-4
  4. South Carolina 12-6
  5. Kentucky 10-8
  6. Florida 10-8

Sorry.

What's the problem?

Start with defense. In SEC-only games, the Wildcats rank 13th in defensive efficiency, ahead of Missouri, which is winless in conference play. Teams have scored nearly 113 points per 100 possessions against UK. The goal is to keep that number at 100.

The only thing that has saved Kentucky from greater heartburn is the Wildcats are the SEC's third-most efficient offensive team. No SEC team has used the three-pointer more accurately than UK, which has made 38.4% of its league attempts.

But if the threes stop falling?

Beware.

Kentucky ranks in the bottom four in the league in five defensive categories: overall efficiency (No. 13), turnovers forced (No. 13), offensive rebounds allowed (No. 11), three-point percentage (No. 11) and steals (No. 11).

They're not turning people over to create easy offense. They're getting bullied on the defensive glass. And they're watching opponents make nearly 35% of their three-point attempts.

Tennessee hung 103 points on UK. That was a season high for the Vols.

Florida scored 94 in an upset victory at Rupp Arena last week. That was the second-most points the Gators scored in an SEC game.

South Carolina scored 79. That's the most the Gamecocks scored in an SEC game.

Georgia scored 96. That's the second-most points the Bulldogs have scored this season.

Texas A&M scored 97 in overtime. That's 20 more than the Aggies scored in any other SEC games.

Any questions?

Bill Belichick is still looking for a job. Maybe Calipari can recruit him to become the Wildcats' defensive coordinator. Somebody needs a push to stop a dribbler.

But taking a second look at Pomeroy's numbers shows another difference between the Wildcats and the four SEC teams they are chasing.

Alabama, South Carolina, Auburn and Tennessee are A) more experienced than UK and B) have more roster continuity than the Wildcats

Here are those numbers, (via KenPom), first Division I experience:

  1. South Carolina 2.85 years per player
  2. Tennessee 2.78 years
  3. Alabama 2.46 years
  4. Auburn 2.12 years
  5. Kentucky 1.94 years

Next, continuity of minutes from last season's team to this season's squad:

  1. Tennessee 56.6%
  2. Auburn 53.5%
  3. South Carolina 28.5%
  4. Alabama 24.6%
  5. Kentucky 18.4%

Nate Oats lost four starters from the Alabama team that earned a No. 1 seed last season. He replaced them a senior transfer from Cal-State Fullerton, a senior transfer from North Dakota State, a sophomore he developed from his bench and a freshman.

Rick Barnes lost one starter from his talented 2023 UT team and replaced him with Dalton Knecht, a wing many consider the top imported transfer in America.

Bruce Pearl lost two starters from his 21-13 Auburn group. He replaced them with a transfer from San Diego State's Final Four team and a combination of a freshman and a sophomore that he developed.

Lamont Paris lost only two starters from his South Carolina team that lost 14 of 18 SEC games last season. But the Gamecocks have upgraded with four new starters: Ta'Lon Cooper, a fourth-year guy from Minnesota; sophomore Zachary Taylor; freshman Collin Murray-Boyles and B.J. Mack, a fourth-year guy from Wofford.

Make a note of this: Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama rank first, second, third and fourth in defensive efficiency in the SEC, miles ahead of Kentucky with older, more experienced teams.

And if you trust the projections from the metrics, they're primed to stay ahead of the Wildcats for the rest of this season.

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