LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — They kept calling the horses and post positions for Kentucky Derby 145 until there were only two to call:
Derby favorite Omaha Beach and longshot By My Standards.
Posts 3 and 12.
This is what history showed:
Starters from post 3 have won the Derby five times in 89 starts, a winning percentage of 5.6 percent. The last horse to score from post three was Real Quiet, 21 years ago.
Here are the numbers from post 12: 3 for 74, a winning percentage of 4.1 percent. Ask your grandmother about the last horse to win from post 12. It was the mighty Canonero II, who delivered in 1971.
To recap, 5 for 89 is greater than 3 for 74.
And, 1998 is better than 1971.
Go ahead and call it Unlucky 12.
Guess which post position Omaha Beach drew?
Unlucky 12.
Guess which post position that trainer Richard Mandella and jockey Mike Smith said they preferred?
The one with the marginally inferior numbers.
“Love it,” Smith said. “Being where everybody else drew. It’s a really good spot.
“If my horse gets away the way I’m praying he can, he’ll be forwardly placed. It could put me on the outside of (pace-setting Maximum Security) or on the lead if he doesn’t go. I'm not forced to use him as much as I would if I was down in three.”
“Neither one was bad,” Mandella said. “It gives Mike a lot of options, sizing up the other horses, leaving out of there.”
Welcome to the aftermath of the Derby post position draw, where you can twist the numbers in any direction you prefer to support your argument.
The wise guys will tell you any hot air left over from the Derby Festival balloon glow is used to energize the discussion before, during and after the post position draw.
Even ESPN figured that out. After several years of televising the event leading into the early evening SportsCenter, the all-sports network junked that strategy.
They attempted to trick up the drama by allowing owners and trainers to pick their starting positions in the order their horses were drawn.
ZZZZZZ.
It was still a ratings loser.
The party was dialed back to 11 a.m. on the Tuesday before the race. The two things that everybody appears to agree on are 1) post 1 is the spot most likely to compromise your horse and 2) everybody else will make things work.
Sure enough there was one audible groan as the posts were drawn. It came from the table of trainer Mark Casse, whose colt War of Will will start in post one.
“When I heard the groan, I turned around and saw Mark Casse with his hands in his face,” trainer Bob Baffert said.
Should Mandella or Smith have groaned about post 12, considering the 48-year gap since the last horse won the Derby from that position?
The only spot with a bigger gap is Post 14, which has not produced a winner since Carry Back, in 1961.
Somebody should inform Baffert and jockey Florent Geroux that no horse has won the race from post 17, the starting position for their Santa Anita Derby winner Roadster.
Should Smith and Mandella be concerned about Post 12?
No.
Most of the horses who have failed from 12 failed for a reason. They lacked the speed and stamina to win the Derby. They were long shots who would not have won if their trainer had picked any available position.
Proud Citizen gave it a great shot in 2002, but finished second to War Emblem. Snow Chief was the 1986 Derby favorite but failed to fire, finishing 11th before rallying in two weeks to win the Preakness.
Keep calling the roll of starters from the 12 hole, and you’ll find horses like Majestic Needle (1972), Rube the Great (1974) and Well Decorated (1981).
Not good enough.
Smith, for the record, will ride in his 24th Derby Saturday. Without hesitation, Smith remembered that he won from post 10 on Giacomo in 2005 and from post 7 on Justify a year ago.
Smith said post position compromised his chances of winning the Derby once. He finished 12th on the beaten favorite, Holy Bull, after starting on post 4 in 1994.
No wonder Smith preferred post 12 to post 3.
“It killed me with Holy Bull,” he said. “We got eliminated leaving the gate.”
More than anybody, Mandella had it figured out.
“It’s really important — if you get luck with it,” Mandella said. “If you get bad luck, post position doesn’t work. So we’ll hope for good luck.”
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