LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The Kentucky Derby reached into its bag of tricks Saturday and pulled out an old one.
It gave the best horse the worst seat in the house.
Renegade, the colt installed as the 4-1 morning line favorite by new Churchill oddsmaker Nick Tammaro, drew the No. 1 post. The rail, the inside, the place where good intentions go to get stepped on.
It is not impossible to win from there. It is just uncomfortable. Like trying to leave a crowded church from the front pew. Nineteen others will have somewhere to go.
Renegade will have somewhere to survive. Neither his trainer, Todd Pletcher, or co-owner, Mike Repole was present at the draw. Which is a loss for the journalism industry. I could've built a column about Repole's response.
Still, the Derby, as always, is not just a horse race. It’s a traffic accident with a dress code. Twenty 3-year-olds, none of whom have ever seen this much company or heard this much noise, all trying to arrive at the same conclusion at the same time.
And now the one who might be best at the end will have the least margin for error at the beginning.
From the rail, there are only two plans.
Leave running, or pray.
Renegade is not built to leave running. He is a patient sort. A thinker. The kind who likes to watch the others make mistakes and then punish them for it.
That’s a fine philosophy.
Unless you are locked inside while everyone else is making those mistakes on top of you.
So now Irad Ortiz Jr. gets to make a decision that will be judged by people who have never sat on a horse and second-guessed by people who think they could ride one.
It figures that he’ll take back, make use of the gap between the gate and the rail, and hope not to get slammed as he tries to save ground and save himself early.
Louisville | Kentucky | Indiana | Eric Crawford
As if the rail weren’t enough trouble, the race picked up a new accomplice Saturday morning.
His name is Litmus Test. He nearly didn’t make it. Then Steve Asmussen decided Chip Honcho would move on to the Preakness, the door opened, and in he came, a fresh set of legs with an interest in the front of the pack and blinkers back on to make sure he knows where it is.
That matters. It changes the pace complexion a bit.
Because now the early part of this Derby may not just be quick. It may be argumentative.
There were already horses with ideas about the lead: Pavlovian, Six Speed, the California delegation that prefers to do its running before anyone else gets comfortable. Now you add Litmus Test to the conversation, and suddenly the lead has more opinions than a barbershop, though nobody flashes crazy speed.
As always, traffic is difficult to predict.
And some of Renegade’s chief rivals drew like they had inside information.
Commandment landed in Post 6, which is about as comfortable as a Derby seat gets — close enough to see the trouble, far enough away to avoid it. Further Ado will break from the 18 hole will give up some ground early, but he should stay clear of traffic and get the kind of outside run that has carried many Derby closers into contention turning for home.
Chief Wallabee (8-1) drew Post 12, right in that middle band where races can either unfold perfectly or come apart quickly. As a stalking type, he figures to be part of that second wave, but he’ll need to avoid getting shuffled back when the field compresses into the first turn. The Puma (10-1) in Post 9 may have fared a bit better in that regard — close enough to secure position early without being pinned — and his grinding style fits a race that could reward patience if the early fractions heat up.
The 15-1 range offers a mix of opportunity and risk depending on running style. So Happy (Post 8) and Emerging Market (Post 15) both land in spots that should allow them to run their race, forward enough to stay in touch, but not committed to the lead in what could become a contested pace. Silent Tactic (Post 13), a deeper closer, will be hoping that scenario materializes; his draw gives him options, but like all late runners, his chances will hinge less on position than on whether the race in front of him comes back.
They will get to run their race. Renegade will have to negotiate his.
And that is always the Derby’s little joke. It does not ask you if you are the best horse. It asks you if you can be the best horse while everything else is going wrong.
Saturday, they'll open the gates and all of that will stop mattering. What happens next won't be about bloodlines or clockings or the opinions of people who've been arguing about this for months. It'll be about one horse in one hole, and whether he can find his way out of it before anyone else finds their way home.
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