LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – The prep races are over for the May 1 Kentucky Derby, and the field has taken shape. That gave TwinSpires handicapper Ed DeRosa a chance to take a look at the expected odds for this year’s contenders.
While several top names were forced off the trail by injury, Essential Quality, the unbeaten 2-year-old champion, has kept winning, and DeRosa says he thinks Brad Cox’s son of Tapit will go off as the Derby favorite at odds of 7-2.
His view was cemented after Bob Baffert’s Concert Tour failed to win the Arkansas Derby on Saturday.
“There is now no doubt in my mind that undefeated champion Essential Quality will start the Derby a well-supported favorite,” DeRosa said. “The combination of his unblemished record, fast times, local trainer and color (gray) will all add up to a large amount of public support.”
Essential Quality won the first of his five career races on the Kentucky Derby undercard last September. Cox is vying to become the first Louisville-born trainer ever to win the Derby.
And what’s in a color? Only eight gray or roan colts (the colors were merged into one category) have won the Kentucky Derby. The last was Giacomo in 2005. Only four of the 31 gray starters since then has finished in the money.
While projecting a favorite was an easy call for DeRosa, the going got tougher after that. He has only three other starters with single-digit odds: Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World, Blue Grass Stakes runner-up Highly Motivated, and Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie all at 8-1.
“Choosing the favorite is easy,” he said. “But finding a clear second pick is more difficult with a bunch of contenders all looking to go off around the 8-1 to 10-1 range.”
Official morning-line odds will not be established until April 27, after the post-position draw.
A look at DeRosa’s projections:
Essential Quality 7/2
Hot Rod Charlie 8/1
Rock Your World 8/1
Highly Motivated 8/1
Known Agenda 12/1
Concert Tour 12/1
Super Stock 14/1
Medina Spirit 18/1
Midnight Bourbon 20/1
Mandaloun 20/1
Like The King 30/1
Bourbonic 30/1
Soup and Sandwich 30/1
Dynamic One 30/1
Caddo River 30/1
Helium 40/1
Crowded Trade 40/1
Sainthood 40/1
Others 50/1+
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