LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- In the Bellarmine game, it was a missed free throw and two missed field goal attempts in the final minute that troubled the University of Louisville men's basketball team.
In the Wright State game, it was a turnover and a failure to defend the visitors' final shot.
In the Appalachian State game, it was more missed free throws and waiting one tick too long before launching the final shot.
That's how close this team is to being 3-0, 2-1 or 1-2 instead of sitting at 0-3 before the Cardinals depart Friday for the Maui Invitational.
Those are the plays we remember from the final flashes of each game.
But when you lose three games against teams you were projected to beat, there is more to the story than what happened in the closing minutes.
Here are three factors that explain Louisville's 0-3 start:
1. Turnover, turnovers, turnovers.
I wrote the nasty word three times because the Cardinals lost the turnover battle against Bellarmine (13 to 11); Wright State (19-13) and App State (18-7).
You can overcome a negative turnover differential if you're a great shooting team or a great defensive team. Louisville is not there yet in those categories either.
The Cards will not succeed if they continue to turn the ball over on nearly a quarter of their possessions. According to the numbers at Ken Pomeroy's college basketball analytics site, Louisville ranks 315th in the nation in turnover percentage, losing the ball on 24.5% of its possessions. Good teams keep that number at 18% or less.
Here is a more alarming number: Pomeroy's numbers put Louisville at No. 350 in turnovers that were not credited as steals by the opposing teams. As in throwing or dribbling the ball out of bounds. Or charges. Or five-second counts.
That's No. 350 in a pool of 361 teams.
Six of coach Kenny Payne's players have more turnovers than assists, including four starters. Neither Jae'Lyn Withers nor Sydney Curry has generated a single assist in three games.
After the App State loss, the first item on the box score that flashed in Payne's eyes was turnovers.
"We had 18 turnovers and they had 20 points off those turnovers," Payne said. "That is the game."
2. Bench Play
The best subs bring energy. There is a shooter in the group. Or a guy who attacks the glass. Or somebody who defends as if his NIL deal depends upon it.
For most of the first three games, the Cardinals' reserves have not delivered that kind of juice. The Cards have gone backwards.
The Louisville bench has been outscored by the opposing bench in all three losses. Payne's reserves have scored 25 of the Cards' 198 points — 12.6% of the team's points.
The U of L reserves have made eight of 38 field goal attempts (21%) and four of 20 shots from distance (20%). Louisville needs more.
Hercy Miller was better in his role as the backup point guard against App State. That allowed El Ellis and Mike James to play off the ball, and Payne employed a three-guard lineup for stretches in the second half.
"I thought Hercy was very good," Payne said. "If Hercy Miller is solid for us, that's a big win. That's a big win.
"If he's under control and just playing solid, he's a good defender. He take take the ball out of El's hands, and we can mix it up some and make El what he naturally is — a scorer — that helps us."
3. Unlock Sydney Curry
Curry scored 28 points against Wake Forest last season. He had 24 in a game against Virginia, 22 against North Carolina State.
Curry scored in double figures in seven of the Cards' final 17 games last season.
Curry has five points this season. He's made two field goal in five attempts. Curry has two offensive rebounds.
Pomeroy displays the statistics of players by dividing them in categories. There are go-to guys (Ellis); there are significant contributors (Withers); there are role players (Mike James; Brandon Huntley-Hatfield; Miller and Roosevelt Wheeler).
This is the category where you can find Curry at Pomeroy: nearly invisible.
That means Curry has been used on less than 12% of Louisville's offensive possessions.
Consider this: Curry averaged nearly 12 shots in Louisville's final five games last season. He attempted no shots against Bellarmine, two against Wright State and three against App State.
Curry had success against several of the biggest, most talented inside players in the Atlantic Coast Conference last season. The Cards have to find a way to get him engaged and producing.
Copyright 2022 WDRB Media. All Rights Reserved.
