LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Two key COVID-19 metrics that will help determine whether Jefferson County Public Schools gradually begins in-person learning starting next week have only grown since Superintendent Marty Pollio set a possible start date of Oct. 22.
The escalations have some members of the Jefferson County Board of Education doubting whether classrooms in Kentucky's largest school district will reopen for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic forced schools across the state to close in March.
"We have to make the decision based on public health, and the numbers are certainly trending in the wrong direction," said board member James Craig, who represents District 3.
"At this point, I haven't seen anything that has moved the needle for us to return to in-person classes," said board member Chris Brady, who represents District 7.
Pollio's phased reopening plan beginning Oct. 22 is contingent on a downward trend in local COVID-19 data like incidence and testing positivity rates.
He and members of the school board have said Jefferson County's COVID-19 incidence rate must be at or near the yellow phase of the state's color-coded map, or between 1 and 10 new coronavirus infections per 100,000 residents per day based on a seven-day rolling average, before he'll recommend reopening schools.
With a COVID-19 incidence rate of 22.3 as of Monday, Jefferson County is closer to the state's red phase of more than 25 new daily coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents.
"Unfortunately, we're heading in the wrong direction," Pollio said Monday. "Right now I'm really concerned about seeing us go into the red instead of the yellow category."
Pollio said he and other district leaders would review the state's COVID-19 data on Thursday.
"We want to get our kids back in as soon as possible, but that data is going to drive that decision," he said. "Our board members have made that clear."
Pollio's proposal called for elementary students to return to classes Oct. 22 followed by sixth- and ninth-grade students Oct. 29.
Middle and high schools would fully reopen Nov. 2, and families would have the option of sending their children to schools or continuing classes from home. Of the 38,627 responses received by the district so far, 61% of JCPS families have chosen the district's in-person option and 39% have opted for virtual learning, according to district spokesman Mark Hebert.
When Pollio first announced his reopening proposal Sept. 25, Jefferson County's COVID-19 incidence rate was 16.8. By the time the school board approved his plan four days later on Sept. 29, the rate had jumped to 20.7.
"We're trying to stay away from as close to red as possible," said board member Joe Marshall, who represents District 4. "Many of us would even be willing to accept lower orange numbers for a consistent amount of time, but it just seems like as soon as we got done with the meeting community spread just has basically gone up."
Another important data point previously referenced by Pollio has only worsened since Sept. 29. Jefferson County's COVID-19 testing positivity rate has increased since the board's vote, climbing from 5.5% on Sept. 29 to 6.7% as of Monday according to the Louisville Metro Department of Public Health and Wellness.
Chairwoman Diane Porter, who represents District 1, said Jefferson County's current COVID-19 incidence rate is "concerning" and that the community must see a detailed reopening plan before students return to schools. She said a special meeting could be called this week or next to get more information on the district's reopening plans.
"It's my understanding that principals are working on individual plans for their buildings, so I am hopeful that when we have our next meeting we will get more specific information," Porter said.
"I believe the numbers will matter," she said. "At the end of the day, my hope is that we make a decision based on the health and safety of everyone."
Board member Linda Duncan, who represents District 5, isn't optimistic that she'll see enough of a drop in local COVID-19 data to warrant reopening JCPS schools to elementary students next week.
"We all had agreed that we were looking for a downward trend, and we are not in that right now," she said.
Linda and Brady were the only two board members interviewed by WDRB News who said they would support continuing distance learning at JCPS. Marshall said if a vote were held Tuesday, he would favor an extension.
Chris Kolb, the board's vice chairman who represents District 2, and Corrie Shull, who represents District 6, did not respond to messages seeking comment.
Board members say they understand the frustrations that come with remote learning as their children and grandchildren complete schoolwork from home.
For some, reopening schools given Jefferson County's COVID-19 caseload isn't worth the risk of outbreaks within JCPS.
"NTI is a struggle, and as a parent, I think I struggle with that as well," Brady said. "My kids struggle with it, but I know that I can deal with the loss of achievement and learning more than I can deal with the loss of life, and it's that simple of an equation."
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